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Home Commentary

At a crossroads: The path to a deal – or to war

The IDF's continued presence in Gaza during a potential ceasefire has emerged as the primary obstacle to a hostage deal. The Israeli public overwhelmingly supports an agreement, but between the Smotrich-Wiener-Moreg axis and ongoing war, Israeli democracy itself stands in the balance.

by  Yoav Limor
Published on  07-12-2025 23:30
Last modified: 07-14-2025 11:42
At a crossroads: The path to a deal – or to warReuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Reuters | Photo: Reuters

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The weekend passed without the long-awaited breakthrough in hostage negotiations in Doha. Talks have not collapsed, but optimism has been replaced by mutual accusations, indicating significant gaps remain between the sides.

A senior Israeli political source claimed that the terrorist organization Hamas rejected the Qatari proposal and is entrenched in positions that prevent an agreement. Conversely, Arab sources argued that Israel is insisting that the IDF remain in large parts of the Gaza Strip even during a ceasefire – a condition seen as signaling an intention to resume fighting once the deal concludes.

Hamas terrorists in Gaza. Photo: AP AP

These unresolved disputes appear to be delaying the arrival of American mediator Steve Witkoff in Qatar. While Witkoff has a representative participating in the talks, he is unwilling to be associated with a potential failure and will only travel if he believes he can advance the sides toward an agreement.

The standoff between Israel and Hamas reflects, in many ways, a parallel rift between Israel's political leadership and its senior defense establishment. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is taking a narrower approach, the security establishment believes the risks of a deal are worth taking to secure the hostages' release. This reflects a deeper disagreement over the future of the war in Gaza.

The defense establishment believes the current phase of the war has exhausted its purpose. Netanyahu's position suggests he intends to leave the door open for renewed combat, despite telling hostage families he met in Washington last week that "negotiations on ending the war will begin at the start of the ceasefire."

A War Without Purpose

A senior defense official described the coming week as "critical." While that term has applied to nearly every week since October 7, there is a growing sense that Israel now stands at a genuine crossroads: between reaching a deal, or continuing a war whose objectives are increasingly vague and driven mostly by political motives aimed at appeasing the messianic wing of the government.

Netanyahu no longer bothers to conceal this: while severely limiting the mandate of the negotiating team in Doha, he allows Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to freely attack the IDF chief of staff and the military's top brass, and is advancing a draft-dodging law that undermines the army and its soldiers.

ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו , אי.פי
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: AP

Before returning from Washington, Netanyahu visited the home of Thomas Jefferson, the third president of the US, calling him "the man who laid the foundations of modern democracy, whose basis is the will of the people" in a social media post.

Weekend polls revealed two clear and deepening trends: the Israeli public overwhelmingly supports ending the war and returning the hostages. That aligns with other public demands, drafting ultra-Orthodox men, launching a state commission of inquiry, and holding early elections, all of which Netanyahu continues to disregard.

In the meantime, Netanyahu faces opposition from IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, who is demanding clear answers about the future of the Gaza campaign and refuses to compromise on the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox men. This all but guarantees another tough week for Zamir, likely filled with field visits where he will meet active-duty and reserve soldiers looking for answers.

Turning the hostages into a 'Religion'

Two side notes are worth mentioning. The first relates to Iran. A weekend report in The Wall Street Journal revealed that Netanyahu told US President Donald Trump that Israel would resume strikes on Iran should it restart its nuclear weapons program. This confirms, as previously reported here, that Iran's nuclear project was not completely destroyed as initially claimed after the war.

While the damage to Iran's facilities and scientists was severe, the regime retains the capacity to rebuild its program if it chooses. This obliges Israel, at this stage, to maintain close intelligence surveillance and to coordinate closely with Washington to enable future action if necessary.

Fordo nuclear facility. Photo: AFP PHOTO / Satellite image AFP PHOTO / Satellite image

The second point concerns the hostages. On Friday, Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Wiener – who served as operations director at the IDF Southern Command and was dismissed a few months ago after losing a top-secret document – gave an interview where he provocatively asked: "How long will we be slaves to the religion of the hostages?"

Beyond the callousness and vulgarity of that remark, as well as its betrayal of Jewish values, his words reflect an arrogance familiar to veterans from the time Wiener entangled his then-commander, Gabi Ashkenazi, in the infamous Harpaz affair. During the current war, Wiener has met several times with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for briefings, some authorized and others not.

In the past, Ashkenazi would have summarily dismissed IDF officers for far less – including highly capable commanders such as Chico Tamir and Imad Fares. But in today's political climate, it seems anything goes. Even turning the hostages, who were abandoned and forsaken, into a 'religion' to serve the Smotrich-Wiener political agenda.

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