In recent days, intense pressure has been brought to bear on Hamas and its leaders, with Arab heads of state leading the charge, emphatically including Qatar. This is one reason Hamas officials traveled to Turkey to shore up support. It is the first time since the start of the war that such pressure has been applied, and it may be the only real reason for optimism regarding the prospect of a deal with the terrorist organization, one that could end the war and secure the hostages' release.
Remarks made Saturday evening by US envoy Steve Witkoff at the Hostages Square rally in Tel Aviv revealed some of what's happening behind the scenes. Witkoff stated that Hamas had agreed to disarm. While Hamas spokesmen denied the claim and reiterated their intention to keep their weapons until a sovereign Palestinian state is established, some even declared they would settle for nothing short of all of "Palestine," i.e., the destruction of the State of Israel, Arab and American sources say the group's leadership is under significant pressure from negotiators and other players alike to bring the war to an end.
The terms have already been outlined by all Arab states in a declaration published at last week's summit in New York: Hamas must disarm and withdraw from any position of control in Gaza. Although this demand was somewhat eclipsed by other statements on Palestinian statehood, the fact that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority are all backing it leaves Hamas with little room to maneuver, and might eventually lead to an agreement.
We've reported more than once that the countries slated to oversee Gaza's rehabilitation are unwilling to do so as long as Hamas remains armed and in power. That stance was made public in the New York declaration, as well as in sharp statements from Jordanian, Palestinian and Egyptian officials calling on Hamas to disarm and end the war.
This is why Hamas launched its false "starvation campaign" and why it's now releasing hostage videos. Paradoxically, those harrowing and brutal clips signal that Hamas is ready to return to the negotiating table and is seeking to improve its bargaining position. It also laid the groundwork for resumed talks, stating in recent announcements that it would return to negotiations if sufficient supplies were delivered and that concrete, positive steps had been taken in that direction.
Three Arab and American officials say that despite Hamas' declared disconnect, talks are ongoing. Hamas reportedly conveyed a request for a detailed written Israeli response to the mediators' proposal and even indicated a willingness to work toward a comprehensive agreement to end the war, not just a partial deal. However, those same sources say Iran continues to pressure Hamas not to concede. Last week, Israel Hayom reported on this pressure campaign against several senior Hamas officials, and on Tuesday, President Donald Trump confirmed the report.
According to those officials, Iran is working to maintain at least a clandestine proxy presence in Gaza, as part of its strategy of regional encirclement of Israel. Iran is also trying to block Israel from making diplomatic progress with other regional players, especially Saudi Arabia. Yet Tehran is mired in a deep internal crisis, and cannot provide Hamas with meaningful support of any sort.
In Israel, the dilemma is both military and political. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has presented the achievements of Operation Gideon's Chariots, which effectively dismantled Hamas' organized military force, aside from what remains in the central refugee camps. The IDF now recommends holding current lines rather than advancing into the heart of Gaza City, the central camps of Deir al-Balah and Al-Mawasi.
From these lines, the IDF proposes launching precise, targeted operations against remaining terrorists in areas outside IDF control. At the same time, it has recommended expanding Israel-sponsored supply centers and continuing to support armed factions and militias opposed to Hamas, that are creating safe zones for displaced Gazans.
The IDF has also warned that securing food convoy routes is difficult, with thousands of Gazans ambushing and looting trucks before they reach UN warehouses or international aid organizations.
On the other hand, the dominant right-wing flank of the coalition is calling to press on with the conquest of Gaza, annex parts of it, and prepare to rebuild Israeli communities there. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sent mixed messages. On the one hand, he has threatened Hamas that if there is no progress in negotiations, parts of the Strip will be annexed. On the other, he has blocked practical steps toward settlement construction. Netanyahu is unlikely to take actions that directly contradict US policy, especially given that Washington is currently restraining international diplomatic moves against Israel.
Officials in Jerusalem are aware of the six-week window until the UN General Assembly in New York. If a deal to end the war is reached by then, it could stymie the diplomatic campaign against Israel. One cabinet minister told Israel Hayom that while recognizing a Palestinian state remains deeply problematic after the October 7 attacks, the conditions outlined, disarming Hamas, ending its rule, and only establishing a state after far reaching reforms, represent a marked improvement over the pre-October 7 stance of most European countries. After the war, he said, these terms could serve as a basis for diplomatic negotiations.
