Chinese leader Xi Jinping is now pursuing his ultimate objective: a fundamental shift in American policy that Beijing hopes will isolate what it considers a breakaway province, Taiwan, as the stage has been set for high-level engagement with the Donald Trump administration, according to people with knowledge of the matter reported by The Wall Street Journal. His American counterpart is being pushed by the Chinese leader to formally declare that the US "opposes" Taiwan's independence, as President Trump has shown interest in reaching an economic accord with China in the coming year, The Wall Street Journal states.
Xi has consistently emphasized that "reunification" is inevitable and cannot be prevented by outside influences, which refers to Washington's political and military support to Taipei, since bringing Taiwan under Beijing's control became a core principle of his "China Dream" after 2012, The Wall Street Journal notes. The statement that Washington "does not support" Taiwanese independence, adopted by the Joe Biden administration, is no longer sufficient for Xi, who seeks a position explicitly opposing independence. Such a move is more than semantics for Xi; it would signal a US alignment with Beijing against Taiwanese sovereignty, shifting away from a neutral position and further cementing his power domestically.
Differing from the language of not supporting Taiwanese independence used during the previous administration, a State Department spokesperson conveyed that, "We have long stated that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side," also noting that, "China presents the single greatest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." Beijing believes the potential for an economic bargain can entice President Trump to switch his position on Taiwan, people familiar with the situation confirmed. "Driving a wedge between Washington and Taipei is the holy grail of the Taiwan problem for Beijing," said former Obama administration senior national-security official Evan Medeiros, adding that Chinese leader "Xi likely sees the coming period of interactions with Trump as the best opportunity to try to pull Washington and Taipei apart," The Wall Street Journal reports. Furthermore, Liu Pengyu, a spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in the US, confirmed that "China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges or military ties" between the US and Taiwan, The Wall Street Journal writes.
High-level talks were recently facilitated by an agreement President Trump and Chinese leader Xi brokered for the sale of the social-media app TikTok to American investors, leading to a planned meeting at the Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea. The US relationship with Taiwan has simultaneously grown more uncertain following President Trump's relative silence on military intervention and a promise from Chinese leader Xi that "China wouldn't invade Taiwan" during his presidency, Fox News reported in August.
Questions about prioritizing a trade deal over supporting Taipei were raised by the Trump administration's recent denial of a US transit stop to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and the delay of some military aid. The administration's focus remains on deterring China from "taking military actions against Taiwan" by encouraging Taipei to increase its self-defense capabilities, while a senior administration official affirmed, "The U.S.'s one-China policy, which provides for executive-branch interactions with both sides of the Taiwan Strait, remains the same as the first Trump administration," according to The Wall Street Journal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's private reassurance of nonsupport for Taiwanese independence to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was publicized by Beijing without US permission in January, which "irked" Secretary Rubio, The Wall Street Journal reported, and the Joe Biden-era phrase was later removed from a State Department fact sheet.
Ivan Kanapathy, a senior national-security official, advocates improving deterrence against a forced takeover of Taiwan and previously argued in an article published last year by the Brookings Institution that US officials should avoid public statements of nonsupport for independence because they create doubt. Chinese leader Xi is still expected to consistently utilize every opportunity with President Trump to push the American leader into officially opposing Taiwanese independence. "No U.S. policy change on Taiwan will happen overnight," said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal. "China will push for its position persistently and repeatedly so as to inch forward, and in the process undermine Taiwan's confidence in U.S. commitment."
