Three immediate combat fronts demand IDF action, with a fourth simmering in the background. Each presents escalation potential, though with varying degrees of volatility and differing effects on other theaters. This weekend, IDF forces operated across all three fronts – Judea and Samaria, Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon, reports showed ongoing strikes against Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure, with several launchers prepared for launch destroyed yesterday.
Whether these launchers were deployed as part of Hezbollah's broader effort to restore military capabilities or as preparation for shorter-term retaliation to potential IDF-initiated operations remains unclear. Recent weeks brought reports that Israel prepares for extensive operations in southern Lebanon, given the Lebanese Armed Forces' failure (or refusal) to secure the territory.
Yesterday, Lebanese Armed Forces chief Rodolphe Haykal stated operations advance as planned, yet Israeli sources note Hezbollah rebuilds infrastructure faster than expected, forcing Israel to act independently. Israeli activity seems designed partly to pressure Lebanon's government – via the United States and France – while threatening war renewal.
In the Gaza front, IDF forces leverage Hamas ceasefire violations to impose costs on the organization. Initial responses targeted specific violations – operatives crossing the yellow line faced elimination – but now each incident triggers broader strikes (yesterday brought elimination of mid-level Hamas military wing operatives). Palestinian accusations that Israel seeks to destroy the agreement sound exaggerated currently, as Israel apparently pushes the organization toward full agreement compliance, while three deceased hostages remain in Gaza.
Israel won't risk combat resumption without explicit American approval. President Donald Trump currently embraces the agreement – he hosted released living hostages at his office last week – and actively promotes subsequent phases, including unprecedented economic deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, some carrying significant Israeli implications. Jerusalem exploits this to pressure Hamas and its Doha and Ankara sponsors, though unlike the Lebanese model, Israeli operational latitude appears limited.
The Judea and Samaria front currently appears most volatile, amid sharply increased Palestinian terror activity and violent incidents – some constituting actual terror – by Jewish extremists. IDF and Shin Bet forces must allocate greater attention to this theater, whose impact exceeds its geographic boundaries: developments there could affect all other theaters and ignite them, carrying extensive political consequences. Last week, the prime minister and defense minister vowed forceful action against Jewish violence, yet senior officials report field measures remain "insufficient and weak." They describe this as "playing with fire" risking loss of control.
Behind activity across these three fronts, Israeli concern about Iranian developments grows. Various international media reports suggest that five months after the first Iran war concluded, parties edge toward a second Iran conflict. Israel particularly worries about accelerated Iranian missile production (reports indicate Iran already possesses missile quantities matching pre-war levels), plus continued refusal to cooperate with the Atomic Energy Committee on its nuclear program.
This intense security activity won't diminish significantly soon. Intensity levels may shift, but challenges persist, requiring defense forces to maintain extensive, complex deployments. Against this backdrop, government efforts advancing the draft evasion law become more conspicuous, directly opposing IDF requirements and Israeli society's needs while spotlighting government preference for immediate interests over long-term state and citizen welfare.
A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, highlighted by Lilach Shoval, reflects this dynamic. Results underpin low public government trust, with officials perceived as evading October 7 accountability. This contrasts with the IDF, maintaining high public confidence despite troubling declines in commander trust and investigation credibility. The Israeli public views the IDF as a protected institution: preserving this status demands internal reform plus insisting government halt efforts weakening military strength.
