Global media focused on Saturday on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and on whether this marked the near end of almost three decades of dictatorial rule in the resource-rich country that has been plundered by its leaders.
The administration in Washington justified the military action in Venezuela by citing Maduro's alleged involvement in efforts to flood the United States with drugs. Various commentators questioned the legal legitimacy of the operation, and particularly its true rationale. Alongside the desire to settle scores with a bitter enemy who apparently did not shy away from involvement in narcotics, the Trump administration appears to have a clear economic interest in taking control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves.
It is too early to know whether the Americans will succeed in changing Venezuela's trajectory. History is full of similar US attempts to engineer regime change, most of which failed. Trump is convinced that this time will be different, but reality has its own dynamics. Oppressed peoples loathe their oppressors, yet their national pride often leads them to resent foreign powers that try to dictate their future no less.
Venezuela, Iran and the strategic link
The focus on Venezuela is relevant for another reason, one far more significant for Israel: Iran. The two countries have been declared allies since Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chavez, took power in Venezuela. Chavez severed the South American country's ties with Israel in 2009 following Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. Iran is undoubtedly watching developments in South America closely, not only out of concern for a close ally but primarily out of fear that it could be next.
That possibility was echoed by Senator Lindsey Graham, who said that if he were in the place of Iran's supreme leader, he would hurry to pray in a mosque. It is hard to know whether this was idle talk or a deliberate hint. It is also difficult to resist the temptation to draw comparisons between the two countries, despite their many differences. Both are ruled by repressive and widely despised regimes. Both are extremely rich in natural resources yet poor in practice due to mismanagement by their rulers. And in both cases, the leadership has found itself on a direct collision course with Trump and even targeted by the US military.
For now, there are no signs that Washington intends to strike Tehran. Despite open hopes voiced in Israel, there are also no indications that the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse. The Arab Spring and the revolutions that followed, including last year in Syria, showed how difficult it is to predict popular uprisings. Still, the indicators emerging from Iran, now being closely monitored by intelligence agencies worldwide, suggest that at this stage the ayatollahs' regime continues to hold the reins.
In recent days, numerous reports in Israel have suggested that if the government in Tehran is pushed into a corner, it could attack Israel in order to rally the Iranian public around it. The IDF and the Israeli security establishment must prepare for such a scenario even if the odds are low. There appears to be a clear political interest behind these reports, aimed at shifting the public discourse toward security issues at the expense of other matters. These range from the law exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military service, through the so-called Qatargate affair, to the flood of harrowing testimonies heard in recent days from freed hostages.
Security concerns are expected to resurface from additional directions in the coming days. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's return from his successful meeting with Trump will, within a matter of days, clarify the prevailing winds in the two main arenas of fighting. In Gaza, the Americans are seeking to move to Phase II, even though the body of the slain hostage Ran Gvili has not yet been returned to Israel. In Lebanon, the IDF has long been preparing to expand the fighting after the Lebanese army failed to meet the deadline set for disarming Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization, and pushing it away from southern Lebanon.
