The brutal crackdown on the protests in Iran, which sharply reduced both the number of flashpoints and the scale of demonstrations, combined with the relatively restrained messages from US President Donald Trump, led over the weekend to a certain easing of tensions in the region.
What until Wednesday appeared to be a matter of hours before an American strike turned into a question mark over whether such an attack would take place at all. It is unclear what caused Trump to cool off and shift from urging protesters to hold on to halting the strike plan. Asked by reporters whether he was responding to requests from the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel, Trump said he made the decision on his own. That claim can be doubted. Each of the three had its own reasons to delay a strike, even at the cost of what was seen as a missed, exceptional opportunity to destabilize the regime in Tehran and perhaps even bring about its collapse.
Commentators are divided over whether Trump has abandoned the idea of striking Iran altogether or merely postponed it. He explained his decision by citing the "800 executions" of detained protesters. It is unclear where that number came from, and even less so who can guarantee the fate of those sentenced to death. Statements from Tehran, including by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the attorney general, point to a clear intention to punish the protesters, partly to deter similar waves of protest in the future. "We will not tolerate criminals and will not allow them to evade punishment," Khamenei said.
In his speech, Khamenei acknowledged that thousands of Iranians were killed during the protests. He accused the US, including Trump personally, and Israel of responsibility for the violence, which he claimed was carried out as part of an American attempt to take control of Iran. The US responded with a warning tweet from the State Department's Persian-language Twitter account, saying it had "heard reports that the Islamic Republic is preparing options to attack US bases." As President Trump has repeatedly emphasized, the tweet said, "all options remain on the table. If the Islamic Republic regime attacks US assets, it will face a very strong force."
These exchanges suggest that for now both sides are focusing on threatening rhetoric for domestic and external audiences. It remains unclear, however, what Iran intends to do given its inability to resolve the core problems that fueled the current wave of protests, foremost among them the dire economic situation and the severe water and electricity crisis. Without the lifting of sanctions, the regime will struggle to address the fundamental problems of the economy and infrastructure. To have the sanctions removed, it would need to enter negotiations with the US and make far-reaching concessions on its nuclear program and missile production, steps that are currently off the table from Tehran's perspective.
The conclusion, therefore, is that even if the current wave of protests has been suppressed, the next one is already on the way. The pauses between waves may grow shorter, and Iran could find itself in a reality of ongoing protest at varying levels of intensity. This would give Trump, and Israel as well, further opportunities to intervene in Iran's affairs, including militarily, while arguing that the regime had been given every possible chance to change course.
Israel's clear interest is to remain outside events in Iran. The heightened alert level of recent days, which has been reduced but not entirely lifted, stemmed from precautionary assessments that Iran might respond to a strike on its territory by launching missiles at Israel. In such a scenario, Israel would likely have carried out a counterstrike inside Iran, which unlike Operation With a Lion would not have been initiated by Israel but rather been reactive.
Still, Israel may find itself required to initiate another campaign against Iran. This would happen if Tehran continues to produce large quantities of missiles, or if it resumes activity in certain areas of its nuclear program. For now, Iran is carrying out various infrastructure works at its nuclear facilities but is refraining from renewing uranium enrichment. Missile production, however, has resumed at a high pace, mainly of liquid-fueled missiles. These missiles are less accurate than solid-fueled ones and are easier to strike on the ground due to the refueling time required before launch. But amassing large numbers of missiles is intended to allow Iran to fire a mass salvo at Israel in the hope of causing significant damage to the home front.
