The US continues to amass additional forces in the Middle East, and Israeli security officials are preparing for the moment President Donald Trump decides whether and how to act against Iran. The military buildup in the region is expected to be completed within the coming week. In Israel, the prevailing assessment is that if Trump decides to launch an operation, it would take place sometime between the completion of that buildup and several weeks thereafter.
Israeli officials do not rule out the possibility that Iran may conclude a US attack is inevitable and therefore attempt to act first with a preemptive strike, based on the understanding that surprise offers the greatest strategic advantage.
At the same time, there is also the possibility that Trump, using what Israel sees as a credible military threat in the region, will try to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran and present it to the American public as a better deal than the one achieved by former President Barack Obama. In such a scenario, the US may refrain from attacking Iran, and what Israeli officials describe as a historic opportunity to bring down the ayatollahs' regime would be lost.
According to Western assessments, between 4,000 and 5,000 protesters have been killed in Iran so far, including about 1,000 in Tehran. Some 500 members of the Iranian regime have also reportedly been killed during the unrest. Trump has said he delayed military strikes because the Iranian regime halted 800 planned executions, though Israeli officials believe this was merely a pretext.
According to reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among those who urged Trump to hold off on an immediate attack. Some inaccurate reports claimed Netanyahu did so because Israel was not defensively prepared. While it may be true that until last Wednesday Israel had not completed its preparations, sources familiar with the details say Netanyahu told Trump that the US itself was not yet ready and that a limited strike would not be sufficient to achieve the objective. Such an attack, Netanyahu reportedly warned, could instead create chaos in the Middle East without delivering decisive results. Trump was persuaded that he needed to continue building up forces and plan for the possibility of a series of substantial strikes that could lead to a meaningful outcome.
In Israel, there is hope that if Trump ultimately decides to carry out a significant campaign that includes strikes on regime targets, protests inside Iran will resume, creating a real chance of toppling the regime. Senior figures in the Israeli security establishment speak in terms of a "historic opportunity" and say they are eager not to see it missed. Israel's working assumption is that if Trump launches a serious, non-symbolic attack on Iran, Israel will be among the primary targets of Iranian retaliation.
Israeli officials stress that the country's defense posture does not rely solely on interceptors, but also on striking Iranian launchers and missile systems. Accordingly, Israel is also preparing offensive options in the event it is attacked. If necessary, the political leadership will be required to decide whether and how to reduce damage to the Israeli home front in such a scenario.
For now, however, all of this remains speculative. No one in Israel knows for certain what decision President Trump will ultimately make.
