Despite what appeared to be an Iranian achievement at the outset of the Oman talks with the Americans, in practice the regime has retreated, at least in front of the mediators, from several core negotiating positions, chief among them the agenda itself.
According to diplomatic sources familiar with the talks, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed the mediators, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey and Qatar, that Tehran would be willing to discuss not only the nuclear issue but also long-range ballistic missiles and the financing of terrorist organizations operating under the patronage of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force.
Another issue on which progress may be possible is Iran's readiness to transfer the enriched uranium in its possession to an agreed third country, most likely Russia. According to the sources, Iran will not make this position public, as it faces strong opposition within the regime, including senior figures in the Revolutionary Guards and the parliament. One example is Ebrahim Rezaei, a member of the parliament's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, who said that uranium enrichment and missiles are red lines for the regime.
Khamenei's position depends on the price
The sources acknowledged that even if a deal is reached, in exchange for sanctions relief and the removal of the threat of a military strike, it will be difficult for Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian to persuade opponents to accept it. The decisive figure is the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Intelligence officials assess that his position will depend on what Iran receives in return. Tehran is demanding a long-term arrangement that would allow it to rehabilitate its economy.
As for the fourth issue raised by the Americans, the suppression of unrest and the execution of protesters, Iran is insisting that the matter is entirely internal and is refusing to discuss it or accept any outside involvement.
A senior European official involved in the issue said that among the mediators there is a sense that Iran is wounded but determined to fight, and convinced it can preserve the regime even if it comes under attack. He revealed that at this stage Khamenei has managed to keep the deep internal dispute within the regime, between Pezeshkian and Araghchi on one side and hardline supporters on the other, within reasonable bounds, preventing a rupture that could lead to the removal of the Iranian president.
According to the official, if an agreement is reached that the Revolutionary Guards do not accept, such as restrictions on the missile project and on ties with proxy organizations, they would rebel even against Khamenei.
The very fact that the talks in Oman are taking place is an initial Iranian achievement, and the format, Omani mediation with reduced involvement by other countries, is exactly what Tehran wanted. At the same time, the Iranians are aware that it was the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey who on Wednesday prevented a crisis and the postponement of the talks, pressing the Americans to avoid a blowup.
Israel Hayom has learned that on Wednesday afternoon an Iranian message arrived stating that Tehran was not prepared to discuss the issues raised by the Americans unless it first received a commitment to lift some of the sanctions and a partial withdrawal of forces deployed to the region. The Americans were furious, announced that there would be no talks, and this prompted Iran to back down and, in principle, accept the discussion agenda.
A US diplomatic source said that envoy Steve Witkoff arrived with preconditions and, in his words, "a mountain of skepticism." If it becomes clear that Iran is continuing its maneuvers, the talks will be halted. "There will be no troop withdrawals or promises of sanctions relief as long as Iran does not pay in hard currency, meaning concessions on the core issues, the nuclear program and the missiles," he said.
