Talks held on Friday in Oman between Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US representatives ended without agreements and produced no progress on the nuclear issue. Diplomatic sources familiar with the discussions say the American position in the talks, as reported by Israel Hayom, was to address all four core issues: Iran's nuclear program, its missile project, its proxies, and the regime's use of violence against protesters.
Iran, for its part, demanded a framework for easing sanctions that would include initial goodwill gestures even before any agreement is reached. According to the sources, Araghchi was instructed to bring to the next round a principled agreement to discuss the disputed issues, as well as Iran's official position regarding the American demands on those matters.
Statements by senior Iranian officials claiming they will not give up uranium enrichment on Iranian soil are intended primarily for domestic consumption, as part of the internal debate with the conservative camp over whether the talks should take place at all.
At the same time, reports emerging from within Iran indicate that although the protest wave has subsided, it has not ended. Sporadic outbreaks of demonstrations and other forms of protest continue, including the toppling of regime symbols and graffiti in many Iranian cities. The assessment is that protests will intensify again once the mourning period for those killed in the January 8 and 9 demonstrations ends, within the coming week. A group of merchants from Iran's main bazaar has called for a complete shutdown of trade, citing the killing of thousands of protesters and the country's dire economic situation.
Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, did not take part on Monday in the annual meeting with commanders of the Iranian air force, breaking a 37-year precedent since he assumed leadership. The annual meeting marks the anniversary of February 8, 1979, when a group of air force officers pledged allegiance to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic and Khamenei's predecessor as supreme leader. Opposition figures in Iran attribute Khamenei's absence to fears of a US attack targeting Iran's leadership, claiming he has largely remained in the bunker where he is staying.
Information about the stalled talks raises questions about the nature of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington and the reasons for moving it up by a week. The possibility that this is an emergency trip due to progress in negotiations is unrealistic in light of the diplomatic sources' reports.
The more plausible explanation is that the visit is a continuation of the previous meeting at Mar-a-Lago in late December, where Netanyahu presented updated intelligence on Iran's efforts to revive its nuclear project and expand its missile arsenal. At the time, Israel Hayom reported that the goal was to persuade President Donald Trump that the Iranian problem must be addressed comprehensively, through severe weakening of the regime or even its overthrow. From the Israeli perspective, Iran is a central hub of terrorism, driving regional instability and blocking progress toward implementing Trump's vision for the Middle East.
According to political sources, the effort to persuade Trump succeeded, and most senior administration officials had already aligned themselves with the Israeli position. This dovetailed with the massive protest demonstrations that expanded in early January. The question, these sources say, is not whether Trump's US will move toward dramatically weakening or toppling the regime, but when and how.
The internal debate within the administration, previously reported by Israel Hayom, between the negotiating team led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and hawkish figures such as Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, remains unresolved. However, Iran's public reactions and demands, described in Washington as "outrageous," are strengthening the hawkish camp. According to an American source familiar with internal discussions, one cabinet member said the negotiation track would not yield better results than the Obama-era nuclear deal of 2015, and that resolving most of the region's problems requires removing the ayatollahs' regime "the same way Hamas was removed in Gaza," referring to the terrorist organization Hamas.
Sources say the postponement of a planned strike was intended to allow for full preparation of both offensive capabilities and, no less importantly, US defensive capabilities in the Middle East. These include protection of bases and strategic assets, as well as Israel, which would likely be a target of Iranian retaliation.
At the same time, a security source said it is possible there will be no Iranian response against Israel following a US strike, since Tehran understands this would draw in the full force of the Israeli Air Force, lead to a significant escalation of attacks on Iran, and primarily target its strategic assets and regime leadership. The source added that there is a wide gap between Iran's actual capabilities and the boastful declarations of its leaders and military commanders.
Joining the meetings in the US will be Brig. Gen. Eyal Tishler, who is slated to become the next commander of the Israeli Air Force. His participation also points to the nature of the visit, including coordination and the transfer of new Israeli intelligence on Iran. One of the major challenges is preparing a structured plan that includes steps after the initial strike in order to achieve the desired objective with minimal effort and casualties.
In addition, Netanyahu's talks in Washington will address the implementation of Phase Two of Trump's plan for Gaza, in light of Hamas' refusal to disarm. A regional diplomat familiar with the discussions told Israel Hayom that Hamas has agreed in principle to hand over heavy weapons, but its position on light arms remains unchanged: refusal to disarm and a desire to remain an organized force in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu is expected to seek agreement with Trump on a final deadline for Hamas, after which Israel would be able to resume strikes against the terrorist organization.
