Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's expected White House visit on Wednesday, and following the first round of talks between the United States and Iran held in Oman last Friday, Polymarket bettors believe the likelihood of an American strike on Iran in the coming days has decreased significantly.
In the latest update published overnight regarding the question "Will the US attack Iran by February 9," bettors assess the probability at just 3%. According to the latest forecasts from bettors, the likelihood that President Trump will order a strike in February is low: 7% for this coming weekend and only 23% by the end of the month. This represents an 18% drop from the previous update.
Bettors believe the probability of a strike will increase after the Muslim month of Ramadan: 41% expect the strike to occur at the end of March, and 53% estimate it will come by June 30.
Regarding the question "Will Khamenei be removed from his position as Supreme Leader of Iran?" – only 7% believe this will happen by February 28. 19% believe the Supreme Leader will fall by March 31, and 30% believe Ali Khamenei will fall by June 30. In contrast, no less than 81% of bettors currently think nothing will happen to the leader of the terror state.
Polymarket, the site that changed the rules
Polymarket is a prediction market where one can bet on more than 10,000 questions across dozens of categories. It differs from betting sites in that it operates like a stock exchange: odds constantly change, and they can be bought and sold at any time, even if the question itself has not been decided.
The logic underlying Polymarket is the gap between opinion and action. Take an election poll as an example – when a pollster asks whom you will vote for, the equation includes beliefs, worldviews, issues of belonging, values, and, in many cases, hope as well. All of these change when the question becomes a bet. When money is on the table, the almost sole relevant criterion is – who is most likely to win.
As recalled, the prediction site caused a stir in the US last month. An anonymous user who joined the site just days before the American operation in Venezuela won $400,000 after betting large sums on the ouster of dictator Nicolas Maduro. The user's unusual betting pattern, which significantly increased the amounts day after day until the operation, raises questions about whether he had advance information about the military action.
According to a publication on the mediaite website, the user named Burdensome-Mix began betting large sums starting on December 31 on the likelihood that the Caracas dictator would be removed from power before the end of January. Initially, on New Year's Eve, he placed a $1,238.34 bet, but each day until the American action, he significantly increased the bet amount.
On Friday night, before the operation, the amount reached $32,538.34. Following news of the successful American operation to capture Maduro on Saturday, the user deposited $436,759.61 into his account, a profit of more than $400,000. Tyson Brody, a political researcher who previously worked for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, raised a public question about the suspicious transaction – "Did someone connected to the war bet here? This looks very suspicious."
