Although Iranian media portrayed the Geneva discussions in a positive light, the US has continued to deploy both offensive and defensive forces to the Middle East, signaling it is prepared to act within a short timeframe. Israeli officials have largely refrained from commenting publicly, but within the IDF the assessment is that operational conditions are maturing. At the same time, there is concern over a possible miscalculation by one or more of the parties. As a result, air defense systems are on heightened alert.
Israeli security officials assess that if Washington launches a large-scale attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran, there is a more than reasonable chance Tehran would retaliate by firing long-range missiles at Israel.
It is also assumed that, unlike the Americans, who hesitated before joining the strikes during Operation Rising Lion, Israel would not hesitate to join a US-led offensive if Iran comes under attack.
In any case, amid growing media reports of an imminent American strike, Israeli officials are not ruling out the possibility of an Iranian miscalculation that could prompt Tehran to initiate a preemptive attack out of concern that it is about to be targeted.
The underlying assumption is that the side that manages to surprise its adversary with the first blow often secures the most significant advantage. Accordingly, all intelligence branches are operating at peak readiness, with officials warning that the coming days could prove highly complex and tense. The Home Front Command is also increasing preparedness, although as of now no large-scale reserve mobilization has been ordered.
