King Abdullah II has recently issued unusual directives to reorganize Jordan's security agencies in light of a new Middle East reality. At the heart of the plan is a new strategy and roadmap designed to structurally transform the kingdom's armed forces within three years.
The goal, Abdullah has made clear, is to enable the military to address present and future threats, including those posed by technological developments. The aim is to ensure that the Jordanian Armed Forces and other security bodies can operate effectively in "diverse operational environments," including against actors using artificial intelligence, cyberattacks and drones. The move may reflect lessons drawn from the wars in Syria and Yemen, where conventional armies struggled against terrorist organizations.
In recent years, public discourse in Jordan has increasingly focused on threats of terrorist infiltration and the establishment of sleeper cells within the kingdom. This comes alongside ongoing weapons and drug smuggling across Jordan's borders using drones. Despite the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, which had been the primary force behind the captagon drug trade, criminal networks continue their smuggling attempts.
Moreover, in place of the Assad regime, an Islamist government has emerged that poses a long-term threat to the kingdom. Some of the factions that brought Ahmad al-Sharaa to power are affiliated with terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida and Islamic State. These groups view the Jordanian monarchy as a future target. Authorities in Amman are well aware of this and are acting accordingly, even if publicly they maintain a conciliatory tone toward their new neighbors.
These external threats are compounded by Jordan's large Palestinian population. Many expressed support for Hamas, the terrorist organization, during the war in Gaza and participated in protest events. The demonstrations were encouraged by senior Hamas figures such as Khaled Mashaal, a fact that did not go unnoticed by Jordanian authorities. Support for Hamas, of course, does not begin and end there.
This week, a Jordanian court sentenced three residents of a Palestinian refugee camp north of Amman to 10 years in prison each. They were convicted of attempting to support terrorist organizations in Judea and Samaria. According to reports, they had undergone training in order to cross the border into Judea and Samaria and carry out attacks against Israel Defense Forces troops. Their conviction follows the exposure of a Muslim Brotherhood terror network that had planned to establish a missile and drone array on Jordanian soil. It is reasonable to assume these were not isolated cases.
At the same time, alongside the shift in its security doctrine, Jordan has adopted a confrontational foreign policy toward Israel. In a meeting this week with British parliamentarians, King Abdullah accused Israel of taking "illegal steps aimed at entrenching settlements, imposing sovereignty over lands and undermining de-escalation efforts. These steps risk escalating the conflict." The remarks are part of a broader effort by Jordan and other Arab and Islamic states to apply pressure at the United Nations against Israel's recent decisions regarding Judea and Samaria.
The Jordanian monarch's conduct reflects a broader regional pattern of playing a double game. On the one hand, there is military and technological strengthening to preempt terrorist threats and strict enforcement by the judiciary and law enforcement agencies. It is not inconceivable that beneath the surface, Jordan's various security services are quietly cooperating with their Israeli counterparts on these matters. On the other hand, there is a clear desire to channel domestic political and economic pressures toward Israel.
The problem with the Hashemite royal court's approach, like that of other states in the region, is that it creates a vicious cycle. With one hand, it strikes at terror-supporting movements such as Hamas affiliates and various branches of the Muslim Brotherhood. With the other, it cultivates anti-Israel hostility, one of the primary sources of strength for those same actors. And what begins as incitement against Israel typically evolves into an internal security threat.
