The Chinese puzzle – why is the eastern superpower maintaining a low profile as the flames engulf Iran? At first glance, Beijing's relative silence in the face of Iran's worsening crisis appears to be a strategic mistake or a weakness. Iran is, after all, a central pillar of what is sometimes called the "new axis of evil" or the "alliance of pariahs," alongside Russia and North Korea. China – in the thick of a cold, and sometimes hot, trade war with the US – holds enormous interests in the Islamic Republic. And yet, as the Middle East burns, the Chinese dragon chooses to breathe very softly indeed.
In a Shanghai museum, there is an ancient Chinese painting and a story alongside it. A monk sits atop a snow-covered mountain peak. Below him, in the valley, two armies are preparing for battle. The monk is neither praying for peace nor choosing a side. He is preparing his brush and canvas. When asked why he refuses to intervene, he replies, "When clouds and dust are mixed together, it is hard to see who will win. But those who wait see the path."
That is precisely how China appears today amid the Iran crisis – not an innocent monk, not an ardent warrior, but a master artist waiting for the right moment to make his move.
Why is China sitting on the fence?
On paper, a perfect alliance; in reality, near-elegant silence. This should, ostensibly, be a natural partnership. Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year strategic agreement in 2021. Around 15% of China's oil imports come from Iran, mostly at "friend in distress" prices. The discovery of lithium deposits in Iran – the mineral driving the electric vehicle revolution – only reinforced the equation. Add to that the implied coordination between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, and you have an axis whose stated purpose is to erode American dominance.
But as the Middle East burns, the Chinese dragon is not roaring. It is barely whispering. No military intervention, no fiery speeches, not even particularly aggressive diplomacy. Almost nothing. Why is China sitting on the fence? Is this weakness? China's behavior does not stem from weakness but from a strategy of "asymmetric risk management."
Video: The Chinese military attaché presents a model of an advanced fighter jet in Iran. Credit: X
China knows how to fight – when it has to
History debunks the myth that China always avoids confrontation. In the Korean War, it sent hundreds of thousands of soldiers to defend North Korea against American forces. In Vietnam, it provided massive support to the North. Even today it backs Russia economically and technologically. When the interest is existential, Beijing does not hesitate.
So why not now? Because Iran, with all due respect, is not North Korea in 1950. It is not a critical geographic buffer along China's border. It is an asset, not a defensive line.
Four reasons for the silence – and they are as cold as the ice at the Harbin Ice Festival:
- The economy above all. China is locked in an economic struggle with the US. A sputtering real estate market, troubling youth unemployment, and slowing growth. An open confrontation with Iran risks painful secondary sanctions. Iran can supply cheap oil – but it cannot replace Europe or the American market.
- Non-intervention as an international brand. Beijing preaches sovereignty and non-intervention. It serves as a diplomatic shield against criticism over Taiwan or Xinjiang. A brazen alignment with Iran would shatter that narrative. And the Chinese, contrary to stereotype, hate losing consistency.
- A weakened Iran is a cheaper Iran. The more pressure Tehran is under, the better the deal terms become. That is cynical – but geopolitics is not a Tai Chi class. China may prefer a needy, desperate Iran over one that is too independent.
- Don't inherit America's mess. Beijing watched Washington sink in Iraq and Afghanistan. It has no appetite to replace it as the Gulf's night watchman.
Venezuela – a shadow hanging over Tehran
The Iranian story is not unfolding in a vacuum. A decade ago, China held up Venezuela as a model for an anti-American alliance in Latin America. Billions were poured in, oil was promised – and then it all vanished overnight with Nicolás Maduro. From the perspective of potential allies, that raises an uncomfortable question – is China an anchor, or a cold-blooded financial investor prepared to absorb a loss and cut its losses? Iran has already begun to internalize that its alliance with the dragon is not an insurance policy but a financial option with fine print.
Where the dragon might descend from the mountain
The real red line runs through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of global oil flows through it. An American blockade that directly disrupts Chinese supply would be seen in Beijing not as a blow to Iran but as a slap to the dragon itself.
In such a scenario, we would likely see:
- Naval escorts for Chinese tankers in the name of "freedom of navigation."
- A measured military presence in the Arabian Sea.
- Some technological and intelligence support for Iran – with no flags waved.
- Accelerated trade in yuan and dollar bypass.
Not an invasion. Not flags. Just a signal.
So how does China appear?
- In the eyes of Russia and Iran – conditional solidarity.
- In the eyes of the Gulf states – a pragmatic business partner.
- In the eyes of the US – a rival that prefers slow chess to a punch in the ring.
But there is also a reputational risk here – if both Venezuela and Iran come to be seen as cases where China did not "show up to the end," future allies may wonder whether Beijing truly provides cover or merely watches from the sidelines.
What is most likely?
The ambiguity will continue. China will support but not surge forward. It will supply oxygen, but not walk into the fire. The most likely scenario is "below-the-radar support." China will continue to supply Iran with military technologies – drones, missiles, cyber warfare – through third parties. It will offer a very limited diplomatic umbrella in the Security Council (but not in jarring tones), and will wait for the West to grow tired.
China is betting on the erosion of American power, not on an Iranian military victory – even at the cost of the Iranian regime's collapse. Because for Beijing, Iran is an important piece on the chessboard, but not the king. The dragon does not fall in love with its game pieces. It moves them.
And perhaps, in the end, that is the entire Chinese doctrine in a nutshell – "The wise man wins without fighting; the fool fights without thinking."
