Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel is no routine diplomatic event. It is a moment that can – and must – serve as the opening shot for crafting a genuinely updated strategic doctrine. The visit is taking place at a time when the space between the Mediterranean and the Indian subcontinent is undergoing a profound reorganization around regional blocs. These are no longer disconnected arenas – they constitute a continuous expanse in which centers of power are actively seeking alignment and influence.
Before our eyes, a distinct Sunni Islamist axis is taking shape – one that should be called by its true name: the Muslim Brotherhood bloc. This bloc presents Israel with a layered challenge. It is working to establish a new regional order with the paradoxical backing of both the US and Europe – an order that runs directly counter to Israeli interests and, given the enduring tensions between India and Pakistan, one that just as plainly cuts against Indian interests in the region.
Turkey provides the bloc with political and military leadership; Qatar serves as its financial engine; and Pakistan offers diplomatic cover backed by a nuclear umbrella. Joining them is Saudi Arabia – driven by regional competition and the need for a repositioning – and Egypt, which is still wavering but is deeply dependent on capital and investment. A country like Egypt, with its fragile economy, will struggle to remain outside an axis that offers economic backing and a political horizon over the long term.
This bloc has already notched impressive gains in just a few months. Syria has fallen to an Islamist-Turkish axis; the Gaza Strip is under complete Hamas-Turkish control; and Judea and Samaria in the post-Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president) era are squarely in Turkish-Qatari crosshairs. Meanwhile, this axis has its sights set on Iraq and Lebanon – weak, fractured states vulnerable to outside influence. Israel once dozed off as the Shiite chokehold tightened around its throat. It cannot afford to fall asleep again in the face of a Muslim Brotherhood stranglehold.
This is where Iran enters the picture – not the Iran of today, but the Iran of tomorrow. Looking ahead, there is a profound historic and strategic interest in toppling the ayatollah regime that goes far beyond the need to neutralize the security threats we currently face. A regime change in Iran is a necessary and consequential geopolitical move that would carry substantial weight in Israel's future ability to contend with the challenges ahead. A post-ayatollah Iran – non-theocratic, non-revolutionary, non-imperialist – can and should be a natural partner for India and Israel in the effort to contain the growing power of a radical Sunni Islamist bloc led by Turkey and Qatar, with Pakistani backing. A pro-Western Iranian regime would ensure stability and balance in the Middle East of the future. An India-Iran-Israel axis would serve as a counterweight and an alternative for other states in the region, and would also check the American drift toward Turkey and Qatar.
Modi's visit this week must focus on the understanding that the interests of Jerusalem and New Delhi extend well beyond the bilateral arena and connect to a broader regional balance. Above all, what is needed is a shared vision and a proactive action plan for the day after the ayatollahs in Iran. India has a historic role to play in such a scenario – it has always been both a stakeholder in and an ally of Iran. Israel must lift its eyes from the military arena and grasp the magnitude of the strategic diplomatic opportunity from its own vantage point. Israel and India are declaring, during Modi's visit, an upgrade of their relations to "special strategic relations" – and the expression of that must go beyond weapons systems to coordination and joint action in shaping the regional space.
Many will doubt the possibility of reshaping the regional balance of power that is now consolidating. At times, political short-sightedness seems like a congenital defect of Israeli politics. And yet, fundamental shifts in foreign policy following a change of government are not theoretical. We have seen this recently in Syria, where leadership change has opened a new chapter with the United States; we have seen it in Venezuela, a country until recently defined as starkly anti-American and anti-Western, which is now willing to sell oil even to Israel, a move that would have seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. The geopolitical reality is more fluid than it appears. Israel must stay focused on opportunities that appear and vanish at a rapid pace – and start initiating moves rather than merely reacting to them.
History, too, teaches that such a pivot is not fantasy. In the 1960s and '70s, a strategic alliance existed between Jerusalem and Tehran – security, intelligence, and energy cooperation between two minority peoples in the Middle East who sought balance against the radical Arab world of that era. It bears emphasizing: a minority alliance in the Middle East is the most durable foundation for stabilizing a long-term relationship in the region – especially when such an alliance is backed by a rising power like India. What David Ben-Gurion understood in the 1950s must be evident to today's leadership as well.
The Israeli discourse on Iran has been locked for years inside a fixed triangle: nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and proxy terror. This is a real, serious, and immediate threat – and it must not be minimized. But a national strategy cannot settle for managing the threat. A country that sees itself as a regional power must think twenty and thirty years ahead – asking not only how to prevent the next danger but how to shape the next Middle East. This is especially urgent when a rare window of opportunity has opened for substantial change, and when hostile regional powers are aggressively and proactively working to mold the space to suit their own needs.
