A significant rift has emerged between what President Donald Trump said publicly about his top general's views on Iran and what that general allegedly communicated in high-level White House meetings – a disconnect that The New York Times has reported ahead of Thursday's US-Iran negotiations in Geneva.
Trump posted on social media Monday that Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, regarded any US military action against Iran as "something easily won." Behind closed doors, however, the picture Gen. Caine painted was far more sobering, according to people familiar with the administration's internal deliberations cited by The New York Times. The general told the president and senior advisers that while US forces in the Middle East were positioned for a small or medium-scale operation, any such strike risked significant American casualties and would deplete US weapon stocks. He further drew a pointed contrast with last month's seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, describing any action against Iran as considerably more complex than the Venezuela mission, the paper reported.
That gap captures the delicate role Gen. Caine plays as the nation's senior military adviser – mapping out the full array of options, their risks and trade-offs, while refraining from endorsing any particular course of action. Asked to respond to Trump's remarks, a Joint Staff spokesman offered no comment, the paper reported.
In his post, Trump framed Gen. Caine as a battle-hardened commander with unrivaled Iran expertise, citing his role leading Operation Midnight Hammer – last June's B-2 bomber strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. "General Caine, like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won," the president wrote. He added, "He knows Iran well in that he was in charge of Midnight Hammer, the attack on the Iranian Nuclear Development." Deploying the general's nickname, Trump continued: "Razin Caine is a Great Fighter, and represents the Most Powerful Military anywhere in the World," before closing with: "He has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about, he only knows one thing, how to WIN and, if he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack."
None of that squared with Caine's actual conduct in those meetings – including a session in the White House Situation Room last Wednesday – where he walked through operational military possibilities and, as is his established practice, held back from advocating any policy outcome.
A Sunday report from The New York Times had revealed that Trump signaled readiness to pursue a far larger campaign to dislodge Iran's leadership should early diplomacy or a preliminary strike fall short. Potential targets include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, Iran's nuclear facilities, and elements of its ballistic missile program; should even those steps fail to move Tehran, Trump raised with advisers the possibility of a broader assault later this year aimed at toppling supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the paper noted.
US and Iranian negotiating teams are set to meet in Geneva on Thursday in what has the hallmarks of a final attempt to forestall armed conflict. "I am the one that makes the decision," Trump declared Monday, adding: "I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don't make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country."
