Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel during days of heightened tension with the Islamic Republic of Iran carries particular weight. The visit publicly showcases the strategic diplomatic and security alliance between Jerusalem and New Delhi. During one of the meetings, the possibility of regime change in Iran was raised, and participants described the political and economic potential of such a development as limitless.
The negotiations in Geneva, led on the Iranian side by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and on the American side by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, lasted nearly all day over two rounds. Iran's position paper, key points of which were published Wednesday, showed almost no flexibility, especially in relation to US demands.
A senior Iranian official told the Qatari network Al-Jazeera that the chances of success in the negotiations with Washington were high "unless those pushing for escalation and war block them." He said technical discussions had effectively begun and described the atmosphere as positive, adding that the American position in the latest round had come closer to "the realities on the ground."
Both the Omani mediators and the Iranians sought to project optimism. Omani Foreign Minister بدر al-Busaidi wrote at the end of the day that the talks had concluded with "significant progress" and that contacts would resume soon after consultations in the respective capitals. He added that technical-level discussions were expected next week in Vienna in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In practice, however, Witkoff and Kushner reported no Iranian flexibility on uranium enrichment or on other core issues. They expressed disappointment with Tehran's stance and cast doubt on the value of continuing the talks, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the details. The gaps between the sides remain wide, and bridging them would require a lengthy negotiation process.
Next week, the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to convene in Vienna and is expected to address oversight of Iran's nuclear facilities, which has been completely halted since the war. Speaking to Iranian media after the talks, Araghchi called the day "one of the most serious and longest rounds of indirect negotiations we have held" and said "good progress" had been made. He noted that International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi and Oman's foreign minister had conveyed messages between the delegations.
Deep gaps
Araghchi signaled willingness to accept increased international oversight of Iran's nuclear facilities but showed no flexibility regarding the central US demand for a complete halt to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. He agreed to continue freezing enrichment for several years, with any extension tied to the pace of sanctions relief. He also proposed that, as part of an initial reciprocal step, Iran would dilute part of its enriched uranium stockpile under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, while the US would withdraw forces and lift some sanctions.
The Iranian official who spoke to Al-Jazeera said the proposal included "technical and practical tracks and data proving that we do not seek a nuclear weapon," stressing that "our uranium enrichment is a sovereign right." He categorically rejected US demands for permanent zero enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities and transferring uranium stockpiles abroad.
The American position, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, is far more sweeping. Washington is demanding a permanent end to enrichment, the transfer of all enriched uranium stockpiles to US control, and the dismantling of the three main nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Any agreement must be permanent, without sunset clauses such as those included in the 2015 nuclear deal. On sanctions, the US is prepared to offer only minimal relief, and only after Iran proves sustained compliance over time.
In addition, Washington is focusing on Iran's ballistic missile program. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have described the missiles as a direct strategic threat to the United States. Rubio said Wednesday that Iran's insistence on refusing to discuss ballistic missiles was "a very big problem." According to The Wall Street Journal, there are internal divisions within the administration: some believe the missile issue and Iran's support for terrorist organizations can be handled separately by regional partners, while others advocate a comprehensive deal but acknowledge that a nuclear-only agreement would still be a significant start if that is the only option available.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Wednesday that Iran remains committed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's 2003 religious ruling banning the development of nuclear weapons, calling it a position rooted in faith and religious law rather than political tactics. Ali Larijani, a senior regime figure, echoed that claim. American officials, however, view this as a clear falsehood. Intelligence assessments have shown that Iran raced toward a nuclear bomb, was temporarily slowed by the 2015 agreement and accelerated again after its collapse. Vance has argued that Iran has renewed its push toward nuclear capability.
The senior Israeli security source reiterated that the likelihood of a US strike is high and that a broad attack would likely set in motion a chain of events ending in the regime's downfall.
President Donald Trump is expected to convene his senior team on Friday for an in-depth discussion on Iran and to determine a course of action toward Tehran. According to American officials, the debate is not over whether there will be a strike but over its scope and targets: nuclear facilities, missile sites, regime institutions and even infrastructure.
In the meantime, military preparations are continuing at full pace pending orders from the White House. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest and most advanced in the US Navy, has left port near Crete and is heading toward the eastern Mediterranean. Satellite images from the past week showed advanced F-22 fighter jets after arriving in Israel, as well as the presence of a destroyer, refueling aircraft and transport planes on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, possibly ahead of the deployment of strategic bombers.
CNN reported on a direct meeting between Witkoff and Araghchi. Iranian state media quickly claimed it amounted to nothing more than a diplomatic courtesy exchange and that the framework of indirect talks had been maintained. Similar reports surfaced during five rounds of negotiations held before the June war, and handshakes, whether they took place or not, did not prevent a subsequent military confrontation.
