Israel and the US launched a broad attack on the Islamic Republic on Saturday morning, setting their sights on a high-value "target bank" at the very top of the Iranian regime. The operation presumably focuses on three primary objectives – toppling the regime leadership, spearheaded by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his advisor Ali Larijani, dismantling the military command of the Revolutionary Guards (Iran's primary military force) under Mohammad Pakpour, and exacting a heavy price from those who orchestrated the brutal suppression of civilian protests, primarily Basij (an Iranian paramilitary volunteer militia) commander Gholamreza Soleimani.
Target number one would presumably be Khamenei himself. At 87 years old and after 36 years in power, the supreme leader dictates Iran's overarching policy regarding its nuclear program, its backing of terrorist organizations across the Middle East and the relentless oppression of its own citizens. Despite the facade of a functioning government, parliament and judicial system, Khamenei maintains a de facto grip on Iran through strategic appointments, armed militias and various powerful state bodies. He already expressed fear of assassination during Operation Nation Like a Lion (the recent Israeli military offensive), reportedly hiding in a secure bunker in the old Lavizan neighborhood in northern Tehran.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader's son and presumed successor, is likely sheltering alongside him in the bunker. Consequently, any sweeping maneuver designed to "topple the regime" would almost certainly include him on the target list to extinguish any chance of dynastic continuity.
Target number two is believed to be Ali Larijani, the national security advisor and a close Khamenei confidant. Foreign reports indicate that Larijani has emerged as the supreme leader's indispensable right-hand man, effectively managing the country's day-to-day operations. Alongside him is Ali Shamkhani, recently appointed chairman of the Defense Council, a body designed to govern the state during wartime. Shamkhani serves as the chief of the nuclear portfolio and stands among Khamenei's most senior advisors. The former Revolutionary Guards Navy commander and defense minister sustained injuries in an airstrike during Operation Nation Like a Lion.
Mohammad Pakpour, the newly appointed commander of the Revolutionary Guards, represents another critical target. Just last week, he cautioned the US and Israel against any miscalculation, declaring that his organization is "with its finger on the trigger." The Revolutionary Guards serve as the central pillar of the regime, boasting roughly 190,000 fighters. Pakpour assumed command after the previous military elite was wiped out during Operation Nation Rising Lion. While the regime could theoretically find a replacement if he were eliminated, such a strike would deliver a devastating moral and tactical blow, severely hampering the organization's ability to mount an immediate response. Israeli intelligence assessed that the early assassinations during Operation Nation Like a Lion successfully thwarted a massive Iranian counterattack at the time.
Several other senior figures in the Revolutionary Guards and the regular army, the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (or Artesh) all fiercely loyal to Khamenei, stand alongside Pakpour. This inner circle includes Gholamali Rashid, head of the emergency headquarters who stepped up after his two predecessors were killed, army commander Amir Hatami, who rose through the ranks of the Basij before Khamenei integrated him into the regular military, and Abdolrahim Mousavi, the chief of staff for both the army and the Revolutionary Guards, who is yet another direct appointee of the supreme leader.
Should the Trump administration seek to cripple the regime's main apparatus of oppression, Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani stands out as a prime target. Though unrelated to the terrorist Qassem Soleimani, the slain commander of the Quds Force (the expeditionary arm of the Revolutionary Guards), Gholamreza faces his own slew of Western sanctions. Since 2019, he has led the civilian militia infamous for violently crushing domestic protests. He previously boasted that his forces have expanded far beyond Iran's borders, deploying operatives to Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Esmail Qaani, the current Quds Force commander, represents another potential target. Despite widespread mockery regarding his strategic capabilities, Qaani is believed to be the mastermind behind recruiting Shiite militia operatives from Iraq to help suppress Iranian protests. Foreign media recently reported that thousands of these operatives crossed the eastern border to reinforce the regime. Some time prior, Qaani visited Baghdad and likely held discussions on the matter with militia leaders.
