Signs are mounting that Iran's ruling regime is losing control over parts of its military apparatus, with some units of the Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively cut off from senior command and acting independently, according to three diplomatic sources in the Gulf region.
The sources, who are closely familiar with developments in Tehran, told Israel Hayom that a significant number of units have lost contact with top leadership, and some have even ceased functioning as a result. They warned that the situation is particularly dangerous because elements within the regime appear to be adopting a "scorched earth" approach, targeting oil and gas infrastructure. This, they said, may explain the limited attacks so far on energy facilities in Gulf states.
According to the diplomatic sources, sharp disagreements have erupted within the leadership over how to manage the war. One example was an initiative by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian, who reportedly approached Omani mediators to help broker talks with the US.
As previously reported by Israel Hayom, the American response was that Washington would be willing to engage in discussions only if Tehran first accepted terms that, from the Iranian perspective, would amount to surrender.
The attempt to pursue negotiations met with internal opposition. The most tangible expression of that pushback, the sources said, was the subsequent firing at oil and gas installations in Gulf countries.
In closed-door conversations with counterparts in the Gulf, Araghchi allegedly acknowledged that the government no longer has full control over the conduct of the war. He reportedly said that the attacks on Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were carried out against his position and that of President Pezeshkian.
At least one major oil facility has been struck so far: Saudi Aramco's installation in Ras Tanura, operated by the world's largest oil company. In addition, Qatar's massive gas facility in Ras Laffan was targeted. Operations at the sites were halted immediately to prevent damage and fires.
In response, Gulf states including Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait have decided to dramatically scale back operations at all oil and gas facilities, including pumping, transport, refining and liquefaction.
Regional militaries have redirected the bulk of their defensive capabilities to protect energy infrastructure. Since overnight, British and French aircraft stationed in the region have also joined the defensive effort, following a decision taken in Europe the previous day.
