The shot down of the US aircraft in Iran could prove to be a turning point in the war, though at this stage it is still unclear in which direction. The incident raises serious questions about the continuation of the fighting and the risks inherent in air operations over Iranian territory.
As of now, the Americans are handling the rescue efforts on their own, while the Israeli Air Force is being kept updated on developments but has not yet been asked to assist. It is an especially sensitive incident that could affect any decision-making going forward.
The main concern within the Israeli Air Force is a similar scenario in which a manned Israeli aircraft is hit over Iranian soil. When the operation began, Israel prepared for that possibility, but it was decided that the operation's objectives justified the risk.
Interviews Israel Hayom held this week with Israeli Air Force pilots who have flown to Iran dozens of times over the past month indicate that this is their greatest concern. "In the end, it's a matter of statistics," aircrew members said, adding that even when pilots make no mistakes, other factors remain in play, including the condition of the aircraft, some of which have already exceeded their annual flight-hour quota.
In recent weeks, malfunctions have also been discovered in Israeli fighter jets during flight, some more serious than others. So far, fortunately, all of the aircraft have returned safely.
The Israeli Air Force maintains personnel recovery readiness in case Israeli pilots are forced to eject over Iranian territory. The pilots are equipped with means to locate them if necessary, as well as tools for self-defense.
The assessment is that once the incident is over, the Israeli Air Force will conduct an in-depth review of the lessons learned, in an effort to reduce risks in future operations over Iran.
