Despite claims that its capabilities have been severely damaged, intelligence assessments indicate that Tehran is still able to restore part of its missile arsenal, according to a report published by The Wall Street Journal.
The report said US intelligence officials believe Iran still possesses thousands of ballistic missiles and could return to service launchers concealed in underground facilities. The assessments come as the US seeks to cement a regional ceasefire and stabilize the security situation in the Gulf.
According to the report, although the US and Israel significantly damaged Iran's military infrastructure, some officials fear Tehran will use the lull in fighting to rebuild its capabilities. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran's missile program had been "effectively destroyed," but intelligence assessments point to a more complex picture.
US officials said more than half of Iran's missile launchers had been destroyed, damaged or trapped underground, but some of them could be repaired or recovered. At the same time, Iran's missile stockpile itself has been cut roughly in half, but it still includes thousands of short- and medium-range missiles that could be put back into use.
The report also said Iran had lost a significant part of its drone array after extensive use during the fighting and strikes on production sites. Still, according to the assessments, it may be able to obtain similar systems from countries such as Russia. In addition, it still has a limited number of cruise missiles that could be used against maritime targets or US forces in the region.
Israeli officials said about two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers were put out of action during the fighting. Even so, some of the launchers trapped underground could be recovered and returned to operation. They added that of the roughly 2,500 medium-range missiles Iran had at the start of the conflict, more than 1,000 remain.
Senior US military officials stressed that the airstrikes dealt a heavy blow to Iran's defense industry. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said more than 13,000 munitions were dropped on a range of targets, including missile storage sites, naval facilities and production infrastructure, in an effort to prevent Iran from restoring its offensive capabilities.
Even so, experts believe Iran has previously shown a strong ability to recover quickly. Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst, said it was an adversary "stronger and more resilient than most Middle Eastern militaries, except for Israel."
The strikes on Iran's missile array were carried out from the air alone, making it harder to destroy mobile targets and deep underground facilities. Some of the bases, built inside mountains, proved especially difficult to breach or destroy, and in some cases the effort focused on blocking the launchers' exit points.
Although they did not succeed in bringing missile fire to a complete stop, Israeli officials said they had reduced the pace of launches to about 10 to 15 missiles a day, down from dozens in the early stages of the fighting.
It was also reported that Iran is currently unable to produce new missiles at any significant pace, and that the speed of its recovery will depend on outside assistance, including Russia or China. At the same time, continued sanctions and oversight of technology exports are expected to affect its future capabilities.
The White House stressed that the military achievements give the US an advantage in diplomatic contacts, but various officials said that even in its current state, Iran still has the ability to affect regional stability.
