Five years removed from Operation Protective Edge in Gaza, the current assessment in Israel is that Hamas is restrained and deterred from engaging in a broad military conflict.
This assessment has been reinforced in recent weeks. Although Hamas has orchestrated the cross-border arson campaign and violent border protests, it has also sought to temper tensions out of concern that the situation could spiral out of control. The (temporary) understandings mediated by Egypt and the UN's special envoy to the region are indeed bearing the desired fruit: The past week was among the quietest in months along the Gaza frontier, with nearly zero incendiary balloons and just one relatively calm border demonstration (6,900 participants and only a handful of explosive devices) on Friday.
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This quiet is an illusion – if money and goods aren't allowed to enter Gaza, things will quickly revert to fire and violence – but it does indicate that Gaza is strongly deterred. Were Hamas not deterred, it would have launched another military campaign a long time ago to extricate itself from Gaza's civic and economic distress, and the terrorist organization's failure to rehabilitate the coastal enclave since Operation Protective Edge ended in the late summer of 2014. It could have sparked another war, for example, via an underground tunnel, which would have also given it a much desired public relations coup.
Hamas is refraining from doing so because it knows it is losing assets with every passing day. Since Protective Edge, the IDF has detected and destroyed 17 underground terror tunnels. Most significantly, though, the army has already completed building 40 kilometers (25 miles) of the underground border barrier (out of the 68 kilometers, or 42 miles, planned in total). Meanwhile, 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of the new surface fence has been built and the underwater sea barrier is already finished. The IDF intends to complete the entire barrier by the end of 2019, which is supposed to completely eliminate the tunnel threat from Gaza.
This deterrence, however, isn't just a one-way street; it also affects Israel. From the moment violence from Gaza erupted anew in late March 2018, Israel has stringently avoided steps that could lead to a military imbroglio in Gaza. It has restricted itself to immaterial terrorist targets, taken pains to avoid harming civilians, and has repeatedly exhibited a willingness to retaliate in moderation to the bevy of provocations perpetrated by Gaza's terrorist groups, which in previous periods would have earned a far more severe Israeli response.
This primarily stems from the understanding among the country's political and military leadership that any broad campaign in Gaza – the cost in lives and money notwithstanding – will end, in the best case scenario, at the current starting point; and in the worst case will end in a much worse situation, where Israel will have to rule (and fund and care for) Gaza and its people; or otherwise risk the humanitarian situation there deteriorating to the point of requiring deep-rooted international intervention.
Israel prefers an arrangement
Israel, therefore, prioritizes an arrangement with Hamas. It's doubtful one can be reached in the coming months – among other things because of the upcoming election in Israel, which intrinsically hardens positions and reduces the chances for compromise; but also because of the disagreements over core issues – from money and energy sources, to the bodies of IDF soldiers being held by Hamas. Thus the forthcoming period, despite the state of mutual deterrence, will remain tense and require the IDF to maintain a high-level of readiness in case of an escalation.
It's clear to both sides that the next round of fighting won't resemble previous ones. Israel doesn't want a prolonged, frustrating war that culminates in public resentment and anger. It will probably start any campaign by pulverizing the enemy's assets and personnel. Hamas, too, has shown it has learned the lessons of 2014. The large number of rockets (490) it successfully fired at Israel within a short time frame in May, which claimed the lives of four Israelis, indicates that its plan is also to focus maximum firepower in the hope of attaining maximum diplomatic points in the shortest time possible.
Overt and covert activity
To enter the next round of fighting with the upper hand, Israel has carried out a variety of operations, clandestine and public. The failed intelligence-gathering operation in Khan Yunis last November was just one example of Israel's covert efforts.
The purpose of these efforts is to stay at least a step ahead of the enemy and help the country's leaders make the most informed decisions possible, even if those decisions aren't immediately popular in the eyes of the public.
