Analysis

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s rise to power fuels speculations that the nuclear talks will falter.

The low-intensity war between Israel and Iran has come out of the shadows as the Islamic Republic signals its intention to plant its stake as a regional superpower by installing an ultra-conservative president, and by continuing to attack Israeli and foreign targets at sea.

Israel should make it clear to its partners in the Eastern Mediterranean that any (unlikely) improvement in its relations with Turkey will not come at their expense.

It is not out of bounds to ask how the maritime struggle against Iran contributes to Israel's campaign against its nuclear program.

The Islamic republic is pursuing long-term nuclear goals and feels that events are generally moving in favor of its vision of the "Shiite revival," warns Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, an expert on Iranian strategic issues.

At the surface level, the quiet seems to be stable, but it hinges on the continued success of Israel's defense establishment to thwart Hamas' efforts to recruit and orchestrate terrorist attacks.

Many IDF chiefs of staff have been accused of factionalism and favoritism. Few, however, have likely drawn as much internal criticism as Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi is for the close associates he is appointing to senior positions right now.

Israel's new government aims to mend relations with Jordan's leadership through gestures like economic and water deals, but the Palestinian issue and Iran remain major obstacles.

It is impossible to prevent an Arabic-Muslim demographic trickle from "Palestine" into Israel, particularly under conditions of peace. The current political crisis proves as much.