The lack of confidence displayed by coalition leaders one week before the passage of the state budget appears unjustified. The budget will pass, and easily, by the looks of things. Absent any last-minute technical issues, it will pass two weeks ahead of time.
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That's not to say it has been smooth sailing for the coalition. The tensions that were predicted to come given the government's impossible composition did indeed arise. They are, however, now minor in scale. Lawmakers' shared goal of passing the budget to survive is stronger than any ideology or dispute.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett felt the negative vibrations approaching at what may have been the most politically sensitive time for him. At a government meeting last week, he asked coalition members not to "rock the boat." He asked those joining him at the table not to bring controversial issues to the agenda and reminded everyone to keep their shared objective in mind.
Bennett did not specify what that objective, which demanded every lawmaker and political party abandon their beliefs to embark on a unified path, was. Was it the promotion of a peace process? The development of a settlement in Judea and Samaria? War in Iran? Religious reform? Unlikely. The only thing they are all interested in is keeping Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu out of the Prime Minister's Residence. We saw evidence of that in the budget.
A state budget is supposed to reflect government policy. The current budget reflects mainly coalition funds and efforts to throw wads of money at coalition members in the hope of putting out a fire. The Meretz and Labor parties are not happy with the government's commitment to building the Evyatar settlement or the outlawing of six associations with ties to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, so they are supposed to accept more funds for informal education and the raising of the age of retirement and carry on as if it's business as usual. Is the Ra'am party beginning to rebel? Take 30 billion shekels, and move on. And so on and so forth.
The opposition will try to stall for time so that everything passes at the last minute. Mistakes may be made and a coalition lawmaker will rebel, but their hands are tied. If the government wants to pass the budget at a final reading in the Knesset next week, it probably will. Although there isn't much risk to the move, the opposition won't go down without a fight. Its objective is to create the sense that this is a government that is poised to fall and is barely able to pass legislation. The coalition has reached the conclusion it will crumble from the inside. When the government appears to falter and all of its members, especially those on the right, are left with nothing on the political horizon, that is when the end will be near.
Let us take for example Yamina MK Idit Salman. Salman has close ties to Bennett and senior Yamina official and Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked yet she is nevertheless showing signs of distress and looking for a new political home. She probably isn't alone. If there's one thing politicians worry about, it's where they will fit in in the future, if at all. These concerns are enough to bring down governments and political parties. The Likud and other opposition parties will try to exacerbate these concerns and continue their efforts to dissolve the government piece by piece once the budget has passed.
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