Since February 24, 2022, the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Israeli position has remained cautious in order to safeguard interests and maintain correct relations with both countries. However, Donald Trump's violent verbal attacks and humiliating accusations against President Zelensky are deeply confusing Europeans, changing strategic alliances, and should also worry Israel. Why is Trump suddenly confusing all the cards, breaking Western alliances, adopting Russian propaganda, and choosing to resume dialogue with Russia in Saudi Arabia? Is he not at risk of falling into Putin's trap? Does he not ignore the fact that Russia cannot be understood with reason? Winston Churchill rightly said: "Russia is a riddle wrapped in mystery within an enigma."
All geopolitical experts, intelligence services, and former generals claim to know the way forward, but in reality, they are unaware of the true intentions of the master of the Kremlin, this former KGB officer who wants to come out of international isolation and lift sanctions against his country. It is obvious, and Trump should know it, that as long as Putin does not obtain all his demands, a definitive withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine is excluded. For Putin, the Ukrainian case is different from other conflicts because it is a question of settling an old internal dispute since "this country is an integral part of greater Russia."
Putin's goal is to demilitarize Ukraine, to expand the control of his empire's borders through a new "iron curtain" and pro-Russian regimes. The goal deeply concerns Poland, Finland, and all the Baltic countries. It is also clear that Putin dared to invade Ukraine because of the weakness of the Biden administration and NATO, especially when a US president tells him in advance that he will not send soldiers to defend the Ukrainians. Let us recall that we allowed the US military to use their stockpiles of ammunition stored in our bases to offer them to Ukraine.
Since the Cold War, the Kremlin's foreign policy in the Middle East has not changed much. The former Soviet Union has a knack for raising the stakes and stoking tensions around the world, but to date, it has lacked the operational means to end regional crises or advance a fair peace process.
However, during all these years, the history of relations between Moscow and Jerusalem is a long series of disputes, coldness, ruptures and reconciliations. A first crisis occurred in February 1953, following an attack on the Soviet mission in Tel Aviv. In 1956, following the Suez campaign, Marshal Bulganin threatened to use atomic weapons. After the Six-Day War, the Soviet Union, and with it the entire communist bloc, broke off diplomatic relations with Israel. During the War of Attrition along the Suez Canal, MIG planes piloted by Russians were shot down by Israeli fighters... In October 1991, following the collapse of the USSR, diplomatic relations were renewed and a heavy page was turned between the two countries. They reached their peak with the advent of Vladimir Putin.
Two decades later, following the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war and in the face of Iran's hegemonic intentions, military relations have been strengthened with the creation of a mechanism that avoids any direct confrontation with the IDF. From now on, all strikes against Hezbollah have been announced in advance and Putin has therefore allowed the raids against Iran and Hezbollah to continue. Following the war in Ukraine and with the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad, Russia is less active in our region but remains essential on the international level.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, our relations with Russia have cooled significantly, but they have not led to a rupture as was the case after the 1967 war. Moscow continues its unwavering support for the Palestinian cause and remains a strategic ally of China, Iran and North Korea. This new strategic axis greatly worries the Americans. They therefore prefer to neutralize it and strengthen their naval forces in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific rather than in the Mediterranean.
Israel is part of the Western democratic camp and depends on US foreign policy. Europe is more divided than ever. The urgent trip to Washington by French President Emmanuel Macron to get Trump to reconsider his intentions on Ukraine and his plan to create a new independent European defense will probably be doomed to failure.
In the current geopolitical context, faced with the weakness of European security, and in the face of Putin's hegemonic intentions, we cannot blindly follow Donald Trump's logic on the solution of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Moreover, let's be modest, we do not have the means to influence the political course of the superpowers. We should therefore maintain normal bilateral relations with Russia without offering it mediation to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
The presence of Jewish communities in Ukraine and Russia and the considerable number of Russian speakers in Israel are always taken into consideration in our diplomatic relations. Their historical past, the pogroms and the scourge of antisemitism are anchored in our collective memory. A delicate, complex and symbolic situation, especially since the parents of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, are of Jewish origin and Russian speakers. But beyond the moral duty, how can we also safeguard diplomatic and strategic interests with Russia and our commercial relations with Ukraine, which supplies us with the overwhelming majority of our food supplies.
On such a sensitive and complicated issue, the Israeli position should be thoughtful and clear, carefully calculating all community, regional and international issues, and safeguarding acquired diplomatic and strategic interests.
