Israel's main challenge, as determined on Thursday in a series of situation assessments by the diplomatic-security echelon, is to thwart the current wave of terror without inflaming tensions in Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
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"It's clear to us that the public is expecting us to restore security and the sense of security, but that won't happen overnight," a senior official said.
The working assumption is that this is just the beginning of a wave of terror that will likely continue in the coming weeks and at least until the conclusion of Ramadan and Israel's Independence Day, in the first week of May. While the majority of attacks have been perpetrated by lone attackers and not networks operating as part of terrorist organizations, and there is no broad support for the attacks on the Palestinian street, this could change if the escalation seen in recent days continues.
The issues officials believe are most likely to trigger escalations are east Jerusalem and the Temple Mount, in particular, Palestinian security prisoners, and a large number of Palestinian dead. Each of these elements, and certainly any combination of them, could set the Palestinian street in Judea and Samaria, but also Gaza, alight. While there are no signs whatsoever indicating the potential for a possible conflict in those areas at this stage, security forces have been significantly reinforced in the Palestinian arena over concerns that could change.
Within this framework, an additional 13 battalions have been sent into Judea and Samaria, six of which are operating on the Jerusalem Seam Zone, which borders the security barrier between the capital and the Green Line, in an attempt to prevent hostile forces from crossing the Green Line. In Gaza, two battalions have been sent to reinforce troops there. This despite all indications pointing to Hamas not being interested in a confrontation at this point in time and willing to do anything to inflame tensions in Judea and Samaria and east Jerusalem while ensuring things remain quiet in the coastal enclave. It nevertheless remains unclear whether it will be able to maintain this policy should the escalation continue.
As part of its efforts to keep the Palestinian population from engaging in terrorism, the government has decided not to limit the entry of Palestinians working in Israel at this stage. The planned increase in the number of Gazans to be allowed entry into Israel for work – 20,000 – will also go ahead as planned. As long as Gaza stays quiet, goods and funds will also be allowed to be transferred there.
Meanwhile, additional efforts will be made to thwart the activities of terrorist elements on both sides of the Green Line. The two attacks carried out by supporters of the Islamic State group in Hadera and Beersheba led to a wide-scale operation against the group's operatives in Israel. Within this framework, Israel has arrested 14 Arab Israelis identified as supporters of the Islamic State out of concern they could carry out attacks. Additionally, over 200 Arab Israelis – 150 in the north and 55 in the south – have been questioned. As part of the large-scale operation against Islamic State operatives, over 50 searches of suspects' homes have also been carried out, during which various materials were seized. The assessment is that the next stage will see the addition of administrative detentions of the supporters of the organization who pose a serious threat.
In Beersheba, 16 terror suspects were arrested over the last 48 hours. Arrests, including pre-emptive arrests, are expected to increase in the coming days. The Israel Defense Forces has also ramped up intelligence alerts in Judea and Samaria, with an emphasis on the various means of the elite 8200 intelligence unit, while focusing its efforts on attacks carried out by individuals working alone and who tend to be inspired by previous, successful attacks. A senior official on Thursday noted that the attacks in recent days had resulted in a sharp uptick in alerts, including against the background of the footage of the attacks that were shared on social media and served as inspiration for Palestinian youths.
The Israel Police is also expected to reinforce its units in the coming days, in Jerusalem in particular. Beginning Thursday, the IDF began to transfer platoons from special units to assist the police, which will deploy them to various fronts. In total, the police will have around 1,300 fighters from around 15 platoons at their disposal.
Should the violence spill over into mixed Jewish-Arab cities as it did during Operation Guardian of the Walls last year, reserve soldiers will be called up for duty in masse, and the IDF will assist in securing major axes and communities.
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