The feeling among Israelis is that there is an imminent, inevitable war with Hezbollah. But this is not the case. Israel can continue to enjoy the calm along the border it has been enjoying for 17 years if it acts wisely.
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The public sentiment about ש war being just around the corner has many reasons. First – Hezbollah's growing gull in recent months. After years of being "on the run", it now finally feels that it has the upper hand.
We can argue as to who is responsible for this – the government or the judicial reform protests – but the bottom line is that Hassan Nasrallah, like the other terrorist leaders, feels that Israel has become weaker and he can try to test it by pitching tents on Israeli territory and setting up new outposts on the Lebanese site along the fence under the guise of civilian structures, and of course – sending a terrorist to carry out an attack near Megiddo (which luckily failed).
The second reason for this overall feeling comes from the field of psychology. We are a persecuted people, constantly oscillating between two states: war and preparing for war. It won't help that the era of big wars ended some 50 years ago, or that Israel is stronger than any other player in the region many times over as well as than all of them combined. As far as we Israelis are concerned, calamity could strike any moment and we should prepare for it. No, I am not advocating complacency – the military does indeed have to always be prepared for war - but the downbeat feeling is just not warranted. Even if hostilities erupt, Hezbollah will be dealt two blows for every strike against Israel.
The third reason has to do with the battle over narratives. Wars are the raw materials for such tasks. Just ask Nasrallah, who has made a career out of scaremongering: If we got a shekel for every time he tried to scare us, we would have had a budget surplus a long time ago. We Israelis exhibit similar behavior: Politicians take advantage of wars in order to extract political points, as do their opponents. The current political situation in Israel has been a case in point: Both sides have been warning of what could unfold if the other side of the political divide continues marching down the same path – and everyone has on the way managed to get the public panicked.
Yes, Israel is closer to war than it was last summer. The domestic strife and the daylight it has created with Washington and some of the Arab states and the West has had some of our enemies convinced that the momentum on their side; that if they act, Israel will not respond; and that even if it does respond, it will do all it can to avoid having things escalate into a full-fledged confrontation.
The result is that these players, and above all Hezbollah, have been daring more than before, although they have been careful not to go overboard, knowing full well that they will pay in the case a war erupts.
This is a dangerous game of chicken, but we must also recognize this for it is – by not being tempted to dangerous misadventures. The easiest thing to do is to destroy the tents Hezbollah has set up, or kill a few Hezbollah fighters on the fence, which would trigger rocket fire on Kiryat Shmona, which would lead to an Israeli response and then things will just deteriorate into a scenario that was recently published in this paper: thousands of missiles per day hit Israel; hundreds of Israelis die; and major damage is inflicted on infrastructure and the economy.
Israel should not fear such a development, but it must not gleefully enter it. If Israel has to fight, it will fight and win. But the overarching principle that it has followed in its military strategy since its birth is that of trying to put off wars for as long as possible and deterring the enemy so that it won't start one. Thus, Israel's immediate task has to be putting Hezbollah back in its proper place, where it is once again deterred and abides by the rules of the game. It won't be easy, in light of the growing appetite exhibited by the organization, its benefactors, and its partners, and considering the political situation in Israel. Nevertheless, it is possible, and even necessary, especially since the alternative is that much worse. In light of the heavy price it could exact, we should do everything to avoid it.
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