The victory of Zohran Mamdani, a pro-Palestinian Muslim BDS supporter, in the Democratic Party primaries for New York City mayor is a tremendous achievement for the progressive wing of the party.
The main candidates facing him in the November elections will be incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who won 67% of the vote as the Democratic Party representative in the previous election and is now running as an independent, and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate from the 2021 elections, who won only 28%.
New York is considered a blue state, meaning victory for the Democratic Party is considered guaranteed. However, while Democrats have been winning US presidential elections in New York since 1988, with an average of 60% of the vote, in mayoral elections, the story is different. Democratic Party candidates have won only the last three election cycles. Previously, Republican Party candidates won.
In some election cycles, Republican candidates won with nearly 60% of the vote (Giuliani in 1997 and Bloomberg in 2005). In presidential elections held the year before mayoral elections, the ratio between Democratic and Republican results was reversed, with 60% of the vote going to the Democratic presidential candidate.
The conclusion is that a Democratic victory in the New York City mayoral election is not automatic, and this time, an exciting election campaign is anticipated.
Despite Mamdani's major victory in the primaries, this achievement may be a pyrrhic victory for the Democratic Party, which continues to shift leftward, and his candidacy could lead to a bitter defeat in the November mayoral elections. While mayors in the past 40 years from the Democratic Party (and also Republican) were considered pro-Israeli, Mamdani is perceived as distinctly anti-Israeli – a fact that will not help him in the city's Jewish community. Additionally, the situation where incumbent Mayor Adams, who was elected as the Democratic representative in 2021, is now an independent candidate, is expected to steal many votes from Democrats, whom Mamdani is likely to repel. It's quite possible that many Republicans will prefer strategic voting to strengthen Adams over the hopeless Republican candidate Sliwa, who, in certain scenarios, is even expected to withdraw his candidacy and support Adams, in order to prevent Mamdani from winning.
In conclusion, New York City, where about one million Jews live, comprising about 12% of the population, is considered the central stronghold of diaspora Jews. Its fall into the hands of an anti-Israeli Muslim mayor who supports BDS would be a generational tragedy and a severe blow to the city's Jews.
The difficult scenes we saw in New York following the October 7 terror attack are well burned into consciousness. The anti-Israeli demonstrations and support for the Hamas terror organization, alongside riots where pro-Palestinians attacked Jewish students and even prevented their entry to campuses, shocked many and recalled scenes from Nazi Germany. While Mamdani enjoys support from New York Jews identified with the extreme left, who have long lost all connection with reality, we all hope that the Big Apple will not fall into the hands of Hamas supporters.
Dr. Uri Wartman is a lecturer and research fellow at the University of South Wales in Britain and a research fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy (ICGS). Author of the book "Crash: The Labor Party 1992-2024"
