The considerable support that the Trump administration has provided Israel may lead rational thinking people to conclude that American support is, as stated by Ambassador Mike Huckabee, "rock solid." Hearing such a commitment from an American official is not at all surprising, considering that multiple administrations have used the same term. In fact, it was President Biden, who on October 7th said that the American commitment to Israel is "rock solid and unwavering."
Despite public pronouncements and public actions, a closer look at trends among the American population will show that a conceptual change may be taking place in full view. The view of unbreakable American support may be a political mantra that may be true now, but also may not be as "unbreakable" as some may think. There may be a "conception" that needs to be looked at.
A few "red flags" are out there. The most glaring is the repeated mantra and data regarding the precipitous increase in antisemitism. The ADL cites a 361% rise in antisemitic incidents. A recent gathering of Jewish leaders in Washington noted "the urgent need for the government to take strong and aggressive action to stop the antisemitic murders, attacks, violence, and harassment." Hillel reports a 700% increase in antisemitic incidents against Jewish students. If these data are correct, and conventional wisdom says it is, the "rock solid" commitment of the political leadership may not be shared by a growing portion of the population they represent. The recent overt acts of violence resulting in Jewish deaths, such as in Washington and Boulder, lend credence to these sentiments.
Antisemitic and anti-Israel action and sentiment do not occur in a vacuum. The inconvenient truth may be that the data the "red flags" represent reflect what at least some in the population actually think and believe. And if the people are moving toward having less of a favorable attitude towards Israel, it is only a matter of time before the politicians that represent them do the same.
Among the "squad" of progressives such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, this is nothing new. Their constituencies have not pulled their support from them despite their clearly less than "rock solid" commitment to Israel. On what has been called the "woke right," there also are politicians whose feelings regarding Israel are not consistent with their party's political leadership. Fringe figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie may still be outliers, but the popularity of alternative media figures that lend them platforms may signal a growing tolerance for the thinking they promote.
The concern for future popular American support for Israel is not without backing from the data. A recent CNN poll showed that, among Democrats, there is a marked shift in sentiment regarding Israel, showing that Democrats now sympathize more with the Palestinians by a net 43 points, a 56% swing in the last eight years. Among Republicans, a recent Quinnipiac poll showed sympathy for Israelis dropped 14% among Republicans over the last year. While polls by some pro-Israel groups dispute this trend, other published research confirms it.
The data have shown, in repeated polls over the last year and a half, a consistent finding where sympathy for Israel over Hamas is indeed significant, but also a finding that when "Palestinians" is substituted for "Hamas," this support wanes meaningfully. There is also a large swath of the population that is ambivalent on the matter, citing equal support for "both sides."
Ultimately, no one can have it both ways. If we believe there is a jump in antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment, we can't believe that support for Israel is as strong as some Jewish organizations would have us believe. The data we see all point to behaviors that don't support sympathetic attitudes toward Israel. These behaviors are all related to a perceptual-cognitive framework that has been created in the general population. As time moves on, if the factors responsible for these attitudes and the behavior we see stemming from them continue, the resultant popular support for Israel will likely decline. And if the political balance in the United States swings over from what we see today, the policy ramifications may be grave.
Whether the "rock solid" support by the politicians that represent the people will continue is anybody's guess, but the conception of an impervious "unwavering" support needs to be questioned before that support is irrevocably damaged. Politicians will eventually follow the people, and initial signs of that are already appearing.
Taking today's America for granted may be understandable, but taking tomorrow's America for granted may be simply foolish.
