Next month will mark two years since U.S. President Donald Trump's historic visit to the Middle East. This is when discussions for a peace plan began, which focuses on neighboring countries Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan more than the Palestinians themselves.
Over these two years, Israel has steadily improved its relations and cooperation with these countries, while Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has opted to admonish and mock the president – "may your house be destroyed," "you son of a dog." The Americans have removed from their safe all the jewels Israel has always desired: Jerusalem, reduction of aid to the Palestinians, expelling the Palestinian Embassy from Washington, drastically cutting the U.N. Relief and Works Agency's budget, and the Golan Heights.
The recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, the crown jewel unveiled prior to the Israeli election two weeks ago, is the clearest sign that the current administration no longer considers the 1967 borders a sacred cow grazing the blood-soaked fields of the Middle East. All these steps indicate that the "deal of the century" is essentially a vision comprising a series of diplomatic and economic initiatives involving Israel and Arab countries. The Palestinians are the objective of the plan – their situation is supposed to improve, mostly economically. But taking a sober view, all past frameworks of thought have been shattered. It's hard to envision, once talks will have been convened and initiatives implemented, a piece of paper resembling an actual peace agreement, which Israeli and Palestinian leaders will sign. Maybe it will happen. But only at the end, which isn't on the horizon.
What we haven't seen is a flurry of intensive diplomacy, which in the past has only served to exacerbate divisions. It's hard to see a summit ending in a ceremonial signing, followed by a timetable consisting of implementing all that was discussed. Is the never-ending "arrangement" with Hamas a prototype? Will Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi also mediate the deal of the century? If he does in a manner similar to his mediation with Hamas, he'll probably have to change the Egyptian constitution again and extend his term beyond 2030. But perhaps there's a tangible reason for el-Sissi to mediate, because Israel has certainly partaken in talks over building a deep-water seaport between Gaza and el-Arish in the Sinai Peninsula. It's difficult to exaggerate the effect such a port would have, in accordance with all of Israel's security demands. The Palestinians won't receive more territory, but such a port – if it's built – will be a revolutionary economic initiative from Gaza's perspective, with all goods entering Gaza through crossings under Israeli control. Is this realistic?
The same can be said for the vast sums of money apparently being offered to Jordan and Egypt. There will be economic development for the betterment of the Palestinians and Abbas will be able to postpone the deal of the century and hold on to power until he dies. It's the only way he can continue ruling and also resign, which everyone has anticipated – for the past two years at least.
