For the second time in two days, Hamas left Israel with no choice. The heavy barrages launched last night towards Tel Aviv, following Tuesday's firing on Jerusalem, are forcing Israel to intensify its activities, and inevitably also herald an escalation whose ending is unclear.
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Hamas did not want this escalation. For them, the story could have ended as early as Tuesday, after it fired on on Jerusalem. It even activated a number of mediators and emissaries who also tried yesterday to push the possibility of a ceasefire – and were met with outright refusal. Israel made it clear that it would respond – and respond it did. Hamas was willing to absorb the deaths and damage to infrastructure, but it defined the demolition of buildings in the Gaza Strip as a red line, because it understood that beyond the physical damage, this was a severe blow to its image.
The IDF predicted that hitting the buildings would lead to rockets on Tel Aviv, and they also prepared for this. As opposed to the firing on Jerusalem, most of the rockets fired on the Dan metropolitan area were intercepted (or fell in open areas), but this is a problematic result, and not just because of the casualties in Rishon Lezion and Holon and the damage to property.
The sound and light show Tueday over the skies of Tel Aviv – which for moments looked like a scene out of Star Wars – was another blow to Israel's image as an omnipotent force in the region. The success of Hamas (and Islamic Jihad) of putting millions of residents in shelters and causing anxiety gnawed away even further at Israel's deterrence, and strengthened Hamas' position. Along the way, the organization managed to close Ben Gurion Airport again – another blow that should not be taken lightly.
Following the barrage on Tel Aviv, Israel will need to press harder on Gaza. More buildings are likely to fall, and as a result more rockets will be fired, including at the center of the country. Hamas, it seems, has no intention of folding, and is ready for Gazans to pay the price for the battle over Jerusalem. Therefore, it is Israel that will be required to decide how far and how deep it is willing to go. The IDF is preparing for a wide-ranging escalation, including the possibility of using ground forces, but last night it seemed that despite the pressures, it is doubtful whether the political echelon will support broad action, for fear of things getting more complicated.
As part of the strategic objectives of the operation, as determined yesterday, the IDF must hit Hamas hard in order to once again differentiate between Jerusalem and Gaza, and in order to repair the significant damage to its deterrence capabilities in recent weeks, while preventing escalation in Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem, and the preservation of international legitimacy for activity. As of last night, it is doubtful whether even some of these goals were achieved. Not only is there a continued erosion of Israeli deterrence, Hamas became the sole leader in the Palestinian arena (Abu Mazen has completely vanished), taking ownership of Jerusalem as well, and worst of all - influencing Israeli Arabs.
This is a dangerous trend that needs to be halted immediately. Although the IDF pointed out a number of achievements in the operation yesterday - especially in connection with the severe damage to Hamas' military empowerment - the balance is currently clearly not in Israel's favor. Taking away these capabilities from Hamas is important because it has invested much effort and money in them, but the campaign is now being conducted on a far higher plane than the actual counting of rocket-making machines and tunnels. It is mainly over perception, and Israel has a hard time dealing with this when facing a much weaker enemy.
This requires the political echelon to recalculate its course, and the IDF to immediately pull out the rabbits that are supposed to be in its hat. Many beautiful words have been thrown into the air in recent years – deadly, multidimensional, bank of targets – and now they need to put their money where their mouth is. Since it is likely that in the coming hours and days the international effort to reach a ceasefire will intensify ahead of the end of Ramadan and just before Shavuot, Israel must strive in the time remaining to maximize its gains in order to limit its losses.
A senior source said last night that the goal was to make Hamas regret launching the campaign, and to refrain from doing so again for an extended period – just as happened to Hezbollah after the Second Lebanon War. This will require a complex offensive and defensive effort, and intense days of fighting, which could also take a toll on lives and property and escalate into additional sectors. The senior political and military echelon must convey this to the public, but instead we have received in the last two days an alarming leadership vacuum. Instead of Israeli residents getting answers from Jerusalem, they were forced to turn to Gaza, where the events are being dictated and the narrative is determined.
Abandonment of the media outreach arena, in Israel and abroad, is not the only thing that will need repairing at the end of the campaign. Quite a few axioms (diplomatic, intelligence) were found to have no basis, chief among them the claim that Hamas is deterred and not interested in the confrontation.
Israel will also be required to bravely stand up to its Arab citizens, and demand answers: scenes from the Wild West were on display last night in Lod – which were also uploaded to social media – gnawing at deterrence at home as well, and only intensifying Hamas' achievement.
And one final comment: The main purpose of the operation, as mentioned, is to distinguish between Gaza and Jerusalem. To deprive Hamas of owning what is happening in the city, and to prevent the residents of the Gaza envelope from becoming hostages of every incident in Jerusalem. It is amazing, therefore, that of all the names in the world, the IDF chose to give the operation the very name that binds Gaza and Jerusalem together – Guardian of the Walls.
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