Citing a US intelligence assessment, American defense officials predicted that the Taliban could isolate Kabul in 30 days and take over Afghanistan in 90 days. This was four days ago.
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The Taliban swiftly swerved into Kabul on Sunday, facing minimal resistance from the Afghan army on which the US had spent almost a trillion dollars in the last 20 years.
Zalmay Khalilzad, who serves as the US Representative for Afghanistan has requested the Taliban not to enter Kabul until US citizens in the city are safely evacuated.
This shows how the dynamic between the US and the Taliban has changed, 20 years after fighting a bloody war.
Afghanistan's neighbour, Pakistan, has often been accused of playing a double game in Afghanistan which implies Pakistan overtly supporting the US but covertly strengthening ties with the Afghan Taliban.
Today, however, as the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is all but inevitable, there is a sense of jubilation in certain Islamabad quarters who perhaps always predicted that the Taliban would ultimately win the war in Afghanistan and played their cards accordingly.
No other nation has leverage over the Taliban like Pakistan, a country that has been alleged to support the Taliban even in its darkest hours.
As the world begins to prepare itself for the reality of a Taliban led Afghanistan, many people wonder what kind of a country it will be.
The Taliban has already unleashed a wave of violence, signalling their worldview in totality.
The militant group killed popular Kandahari comedian, Nazar Mohammad, also known as Khasha Zwan who was famous for his satirical humour and social media presence.
Journalists and ex-government officials have faced similar violence in the areas in which the Taliban has established its authority, reflecting that without American presence, there is no guarantee of the safety of the citizens of Afghanistan.
Women, however, seem to have to the worst bargain, with the Taliban forcing girls as young as 15 years old to marry Taliban fighters regardless of their consent, regardless of denials by Taliban spokesmen.
The Taliban's military prowess may not be enough to govern and sustain a country of almost 40 million people, who have now witnessed symbols of democracy and due process.
Afghanistan's relations with its neighbours, including Iran, will undergo a systemic shift, with the Taliban seeking to establish their presence as a globally accepted reality and not a passing facade.
In 1998, the Taliban had seized the Iranian consulate and killed Iranian diplomats. Tensions between the two countries soared when Iran threatened to wage war on Afghanistan but it was avoided due to the timely efforts of the United National Security Council.
Last week, Iranian border guards have stood at a constant alert as the Taliban captured Zaranj, a city that borders Iran.
The animosity between the Iranian leadership and the Afghan Taliban is not only because of regional competition but religious factors also play out in this dynamic.
The Taliban are predominantly Sunni, followers of the Hanafi school of thought while Iran is predominantly Shiite, adding another wedge between the two neighbours.
Another aspect is the refugee crisis, with around 750,000 registered Afghan refugees in Iran at the moment. It is expected that more Afghans will flee to Iran as well as Pakistan but if Iran closes its border, their plight could remain uncertain.
One factor which could potentially find some common ground between Iran and the Taliban led Afghanistan is Anti Americanism, with both leadership expressing public hostility against the US.
However, the differences between Iran and Afghanistan are so deep-rooted that it seems unlikely that any major cooperation between the two nations would be witnessed.
Israel, through its allies in the Gulf, may be able to indirectly influence the Taliban and establish a presence in Afghanistan.
It must be remembered that in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (1996-2001), only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkmenistan formally accepted the Taliban led state.
Israel may also use Qatar, the nation which had been hosting talks of a political settlement between the Taliban and the Ashraf Ghani led government to make inroads into the Taliban led Afghanistan.
But as the situation stands, the world must realise that post 15 August 2021, the road to Kabul goes through Islamabad.
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