U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce on Tuesday whether the U.S. will remain committed to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, the White House said Monday.
A senior U.S. official said it was unclear if efforts by European allies to address Trump's concerns would be enough to salvage the 2015 accord, which Trump has criticized as "the worst deal in history."
Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the agreement, which eased economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear program, unless fellow signatories France, Germany and Britain can fix what Trump described as the deal's "terrible flaws."
The senior official said the European allies had moved significantly in Trump's direction on what the defects he sees in the pact, namely the failure to address Iran's ballistic missile program, the terms under which international inspectors visit suspected Iranian sites, and "sunset" clauses under which some of the restrictions are set to expire.
However, the official did not know whether the Europeans had done enough to convince Trump to remain in the deal.
"The big question in my mind is, does he think the Europeans have moved far enough so that we can all be unified and announce a deal?" the official said.
"Or [does he conclude] the Europeans have not moved far enough and we say they've got to move more?"
European diplomats said they expect Trump to effectively withdraw from the agreement.
"It's pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the president will not waive the sanctions," one European diplomat said, adding he sees only a "very small" chance that Trump will stay in the deal.
European leaders have warned that Trump's withdrawal would strike a blow to the alliance between Western Europe and the United States, and undo years of negotiations that they say were successful in halting Iran's nuclear ambitions.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the Europeans would remain committed to the deal regardless of Trump's decision.
On a visit to Berlin on Monday, Le Drian said that "we will continue it independently of the American decision."
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said his country also wants to stick with the deal, as it "makes the world a safer place and without it the world would be less safe."
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, in Washington this week, said the deal's weaknesses can be remedied.
"At this moment, Britain is working alongside the Trump administration and our French and German allies to ensure that they are," he said.
France and United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned against scrapping the 2015 agreement, saying that doing so without presenting a good alternative could lead to war.
Iran has ruled out renegotiating the accord and has threatened to retaliate if the U.S. pulls out, although it has not detailed how.
Under the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the United States committed to easing a series of U.S. sanctions on Iran and it has done so under a string of "waivers" that effectively suspend them.
Trump has set a May 12 deadline to decide whether to reintroduce U.S. sanctions on Iran's central bank and Iranian oil exports.
Reimposing sanctions would dissuade foreign companies from doing business with Iran because they could face U.S. penalties.
Bringing back U.S. sanctions could also trigger a backlash by Iran, which in turn may reignite Iran's nuclear efforts or prompt Iran to punish U.S. allies across the Middle East, diplomats said.
On Monday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggested that Iran could remain in the accord even if the United States dropped out, but stressed that Iran would fiercely resist U.S. pressure to limit its influence in the Middle East.
"If we can get what we want from a deal without America, then Iran will continue to remain committed to the deal. What Iran wants is our interests to be guaranteed by its non-American signatories. ... In that case, getting rid of America's mischievous presence will be fine for Iran," he said.
Diplomats say Iran would rather the deal remain intact out of concern about a revival of domestic unrest over economic hardships that mounted over the years sanctions were in place.
Trump's imminent decision and the belligerent barbs Israel and Iran have recently traded over Syria stirred concerns that a major security escalation could be looming on Israel's northern borders, where Iran backs Hezbollah and Shiite militias in Lebanon as well as President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria.
Defense officials said that if Iran did take direct aim at Israel, it would likely use its militias in Syria to strike targets in northern Israel.
Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Monday that Assad may find himself in Israel's sights if that happens.
"If Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a military vanguard against us, to attack us from Syrian territory, he should know that this would be the end of him, the end of his regime," Steinitz said.
Israeli communities near the northern borders, however, have not been placed on special alert at this time, but many have initiated preliminary inspection of public shelters, should it become necessary to take shelter.
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman stressed Monday that "Israel has no interest in a security escalation but we are ready for any scenario."
