Aside from Israel, all parties involved in the recent events in Syria can smile to themselves in satisfaction. All of them, purportedly, stood on their principles, without paying too heavy a military or diplomatic price.
The U.S., U.K. and France attacked facilities linked to Syria's chemical weapons program, thus fulfilling their promise to retaliate for the use of forbidden unconventional weapons. Russia prevented a more severe attack. The Syrians, meanwhile, sustained a minor hit which didn't threaten their primary interest – Assad's rule.
This harmony is so stark that devoted conspiracy theorists could argue the attack and its targets were coordinated in advance. This is surely untrue, but the element of surprise was also missing and the entire endeavor was seemingly geared toward achieving the bare minimum. The scope of the attack was obvious to everyone. Syria prepared for it in advance, Russia received prior warning, and to top it off U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis hurriedly declared there would be no more airstrikes, thereby removing the noose from Assad's neck. The Syrian dictator, meanwhile, wasted no time to exploit the situation as a public relations boon.
As a result, the Western trio squandered an opportunity to reshape the rules of the game in Syria, and it's doubtful the Assad regime was even deterred from using chemical weapons in the future. Russia's regional superiority received a renewed stamp of approval, and it could respond by imposing harsher restrictions on foreign activity in Syria – with an emphasis on Israel – so as not to disturb it from reaping the fruits of economic rehabilitation. Assad, for his part, understands that the world will not stop him from retaking control of his country, still bleeding from seven years of civil war.
Consequently, the only player left wanting is Israel, which remains alone in the fight against the forces of evil amassing in the northern sector. Friday's report in the Israeli media – that the drone Iran launched into Israel on February 10 was armed with explosives – was not a coincidence. Its purpose was to illustrate how the Iranians are dragging the region toward conflagration, against everyone's interest – including Russia and Assad.
This message most likely went unnoticed amid the noise of the American-British-French operation. Even Iran remained nonplussed. Israeli officials believe Iran is preparing its response to last week's airstrike targeting a drone base it is building in northern Syria. Reports in Iran that seven Iranians were killed in the strike, which was attributed to Israel, are meant to formulate public opinion in the Islamic republic and international community, that its expected retaliation is a response to Israeli aggression.
This is opposite of the reality of course, but Israel is struggling to convince Western countries that Iran's Quds Force, commanded Qasem Soleimani, is posing a threat to regional stability or their interests. The only one who understood this was Hassan Nasrallah, of all people. Counter to a common appraisal of the situation, his comments Friday weren't a threat against Israel but, in fact, an attempt to sidestep a fight with it. He made it clear this matter is between Iran and Israel, and that he and his organization are not part of it.
This reality is relatively convenient for Israel because it confines the fight to the Syrian arena – where Israel wields aerial and intelligence gathering dominance. Assuming Russia doesn't pose any restrictions, Israel poses a clear threat to Iran – not only can it retaliate to aggression with extreme force, it has the power to completely eradicate Iran's entire military operation in Syria.
The sides could quickly find themselves in this state of affairs if Iran's response is severe and inflicts casualties, certainly if it disrupts Israel's 70th-anniversary celebrations this week. The diplomatic-security echelon has very little tolerance for Iranian activity in Syria, and it could exploit the opportunity to make moves to shape a different reality – which is exactly what the West's airstrike early Saturday failed to do.
