Optimistic media reports about far-reaching agreements with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, meant to ensure peace and quiet on the border, are premature. As of now, the only understanding in place is that Friday will pose a significant test for Gaza's rulers, who have yet to shelve their border riot campaign, and only it the day proves to be incident-free will it be possible to go ahead with the negotiations.
It is not that nothing is happening behind the scenes. Several mediators, headed by Egyptian intelligence officials and U.N. Middle East envoy Nickolay Mladenov, are holding intense talks between Palestinian and Israeli officials in an effort to broker a long-term cease-fire, and the U.S., Russia and several Persian Gulf states are also involved, at one level or another.
Israel's primary stipulation has always been complete calm on the border. Hamas agreed to that last week, following the latest flare-up, and seeing that the deal was holding, Israel lived up to its word, resumed operations at the Kerem Shalom cargo crossing and expanded the fishing zone off Gaza's coast from 6 to 9 nautical miles.
This was phase one of mutual gestures, and it gave the south the calmest week it has seen since March 30.
Much of phase two depends on this Friday's border prowwww. Over the past four months, border protests have attracted thousands of Palestinian and have consistently turned into mass riots that include attempts to breach the security fence alongside burning tires, hurling stones and firebombs at Israeli troops and sending incendiary kites and balloon over the border, where they have wreaked havoc on Israeli communities.
Hamas has pledged to ensure this Friday's protest would indeed be quiet, but if anything, this will be a test of its leadership and its ability to hold both the masses and the rogue terrorist group in Gaza at bay.
The Palestinian interest in maintaining calm stems from another reason: Next week they mark the Eid al-Adha holiday and they would undoubtedly prefer celebrating it airstrike-free. Israel and Egypt may even offer additional gestures for the holiday as confidence-building moves between the parties.
If the calm does prevail in the coming days, truce talks will continue and they will probably be delved into more serious issues, such as Gaza's energy, water, sewage and wages problems.
This phase will require making some serious decision, such as whether the Palestinian Authority will be part of a potential Israel-Hamas deal – in other words, are Israel and the world going to officially recognize Hamas as the sovereign in Gaza; whether the deal would include a mere truce or be a broader "rehabilitation for disarmament" agreement and, of course, whether it will include a prisoner exchange deal.
One must remember, however, that none of the understandings reach so far between Israel and Hamas have even been put on paper. Media reports suggesting otherwise are premature and it would take days, if not weeks, of calm on the border before the negotiations can address practical measures on the ground. Even then, there would still be numerous hurdles to cross.
While we have to wait and see how things develop, for not, at least, we can say that the mediators have been able to broker a clam and avoid war.
