If a Knesset election were held now, the Likud party would win 30 seats under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while it would win only 25 if former minister Gideon Sa'ar were leading the party, according to a Channel 10 poll released Thursday.
The poll was conducted on the heels of the faceoff between Netanyahu and Sa'ar following an Israel Hayom exclusive report that Netanyahu had decided not to bring the next election, due in November 2019, forward because he feared that President Reuven Rivlin would not select him to form the next government, even if Likud won.
By law, after an election the president has the authority to appoint the Knesset member who will be charged with forming a coalition government. That MK does not necessarily have to be the head of or even a member of the party that wins the most seats.
Sources close to Netanyahu hinted that Sa'ar, who is close to Rivlin, was behind the supposed scheme to keep Netanyahu from heading the next government. Sa'ar issued a staunch denial, as did Rivlin's spokespeople.
The Channel 10 poll projected that if an election were held now, Likud under Netanyahu would win 30 seats. Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party would win 19 seats, the Joint Arab List would win 14 seats, and the Zionist Union would win 12.
The poll projected 10 seats for Habayit Hayehudi, eight for Meretz, seven for Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party, six for United Torah Judaism, five for Yisrael Beytenu under Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, five for MK Orly Levy-Abekasis' as-yet-unnamed new party, and only four seats for the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas.
According to the poll, if Sa'ar were head of the Likud, the party would secure only 25 Knesset seats. That scenario would give a boost to Habayit Hayehudi, which would win 13 seats as opposed to the projected 10 it would win if Netanyahu was heading the Likud. Two of the lost Likud seats would go to Yisrael Beytenu, bringing its total to nine seats. The poll did not expect the change to affect the results of any of the other parties.
Hadashot News also published a poll on Thursday asking respondents whom they believed in the dispute between Netanyahu and Sa'ar. Over a third (37%) said they believed Netanyahu, 13% said they believed Sa'ar and 50% said they did not know whom to believe.
