After the massive slap in the face the Democrats received from voters in the 2016 U.S. presidential election – despite polls that gave them a 95% chance of winning – the boisterous Democratic opposition has opted to keep a low profile ahead of the Nov. 6 midterms and hope for the best.
Traditionally, the midterm elections play in favor of the party that lost the presidential elections. But the tense public mood in the United States and the anti-Trump atmosphere the Democrats have created since the 45th president took office have made these midterm elections the most interesting and important vote the United States has known in decades.
This atmosphere has never been as poignant as it was this week, in the wake of the horrific shooting attack in Pittsburgh. Some tried to point the finger of blame at the president while others floated the notion that American Jews were, in fact, hostile toward President Donald Trump, but they failed to remember that Israeli Jews favor him.
The 2018 midterm elections, perhaps more than ever before, represent a vote on the character of the United States in the coming years, even if the losers claim they are only local elections. Much has been said and written about Trump's stunning victory in the 2016 elections, secured against all odds. For many, this was a huge surprise and it proved that the models used to predict election results, like any statistical model, are based on past trends rather than future ones.
Still, anyone who followed the polls in key states – the so-called "swing states" – could clearly see that the gap between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Trump in the last week of the campaign was had reduced to single points, effectively creating a tie. On election day, as is so often the case, undecided voters opted to put their trust in the newcomer bearing a message of change. And so, fewer than 100,000 votes made all the difference and gave Trump the holy trinity of swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
It is easy to understand this upset if you account for the fact that Trump mesmerized Americans who usually avoid politics and prompted them to become politically involved. That was the source of his power. With the help of suburban voters, who turned their backs on Clinton, he managed to get those Americans to do what they had refused to do in 2008 for John McCain and in 2012 for Mitt Romney: He got them to vote, and to vote for the Republicans.
The result, which undoubtedly still resonates in Clinton's mind, was the collapse of the Democratic candidate's blue wall. Pennsylvania voted for the Republican candidate for the first time in 30 years. In fact, across the United States, people who had voted for Bill Clinton in the 1990s and for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 decided to support Trump.
That change in political allegiance posed no contradiction for these voters because, contrary to the virtual reality the media tried to create, they perceived Trump as a centrist candidate, an independent free of the ideological shackles of both parties.
Yes, he is often blunt and perhaps even crosses the line. But that hardly signals fascism, the end of democracy as we know it, and a slide toward dictatorship, as (leading?) American newspapers and TV networks would have you believe.
The explanation is far simpler: Those voters, who are familiar with urban America, joined forces with their fellow Americans in small towns, who sought an anti-establishment savior and found him in the form of Trump. That made all the difference. But the question is whether, after two years, these voters will do the same and swing the midterm elections in favor of the Republicans.
If, in the previous elections, voters came out over the hope of a new spirit in the White House, this time they are asked to cast their vote as a show of confidence in the great change that Trump is creating in their country. Judging from the results so far – the appointment of two conservative Supreme Court justices, a flourishing economy, a solid stock exchange, unprecedentedly low unemployment, an improvement in the U.S.'s global standing, and a slew of achievements in the international arena – there is a substantial chance the Republicans will not sustain the crushing defeat the media once again predicts for the party.
There is no doubt that the 2018 midterm elections will be seen as a referendum on Trump's presidential image and accomplishments. The U.S. media has returned to the president's strongholds in recent weeks, where those he called Americans "forgotten" by the establishment reside. Two years later, mainstream American media is still surprised to discover that voters in the swing states, who paved the way for Trump's victory, remain loyal to him.
Those so-called "forgotten," who took to the polls en masse, see Trump as a long-term investment becausehe made them feel, for the first time in years, that they were taking part in shaping the American way of life.
The Nov. 6 midterm elections will take place as the U.S. reels from the ugly battle over the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. His nomination was almost derailed by allegations of sexual assault and his confirmation process quickly turned into a political battle in which the Democrats tried to ride the momentum created by the #MeToo movement.
The Republicans, who support the demand to expose men's problematic behavior towards women, saw the Democrats' moves as a cynical attempt to usurp this cause for their own political needs. After the president personally campaigned for Kavanaugh's nomination to be confirmed. The fight animated Republican voters and gave them a new sense of purpose – to vote in the midterm elections to ensure the implementation of the president's policies and his future nominations.
Recent polls have shown that Trump's persistent struggle to approve Kavanaugh's nomination has reinvigorated his supporters, mainly the men. As for the Democrats, the battle was translated into a wave of donations to the various midterm candidates' campaigns, but voters' energy level remained the same.
For now, the Democrats can feel relatively good about their position in the House of Representatives: Although all 435 seats are at stake, in most cases the winners are already known and only a few dozen seats are in question.
Most of the uncertain seats are those of Republican incumbents, making the Democrats' task that much easier, as all they have to do is win 23 seats in addition to the 193 they already hold. In the Senate, on the other hand, the situation is more complicated, as Republicans enjoy an advantage there. Only nine Senate seats are up for grabs, almost all of them in Republican-leaning states.
Trump is a brand, and a brand is not to be relinquished readily. Since his election, the Democrats have been targeting him over his personality, not his actions. It is not clear now what will sway the midterm elections or in which direction, but the polls say Trump has never been more popular and the "blue wave" the Democrats predicted has already fizzled.
The president has already succeeded in turning the midterm elections into a referendum on his policy and the concept of "America first." It remains to be seen whether the millions of voters who succeeded in shaking the system in 2016 will remain involved enough to do the same now.
