Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday held consultations with the heads of the coalition factions with the aim of exploring ways to preserve the coalition in the wake of Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman's surprise resignation as defense minister.
Lieberman announced the move on Wednesday afternoon, citing what he called the government's "capitulation to terrorism" in the Gaza Strip. He said Yisrael Beytenu would be pulling out of the coalition and called for early elections.
Yisrael Beytenu holds five Knesset seats. Political analysts said the party's exit from the coalition does not necessarily spell early elections, as the coalition still numbers 61 MKs out of the Knesset's 120 seats – a majority, albeit very slight.
Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett on Wednesday demanded to be named defense minister in Lieberman's place, saying that if Netanyahu rejects his demand, Habayit Hayehudi would also quit the coalition, a move that would inevitably set off early elections.
Going forward, one possible scenario is that Netanyahu will decide that a 61-MK coalition is not stable enough and announce early elections. In this eventuality, Netanyahu will keep the defense portfolio and elections will most likely be held in February 2019.
Another scenario, which depends on the coalition partners' desire to avoid elections at this time, will see the current coalition try to sustain itself for as long as possible with two objectives in mind: to make it to the original election date set for November 2019, and to hurt Lieberman in the polls by downplaying his protest resignation.
Netanyahu seems to prefer this scenario, but this option is not without its challenges: first, keeping a 61-MK coalition stable is likely to prove very difficult given the various rogue lawmakers within the government; second, Netanyahu's decision to keep the defense portfolio instead of giving it to a Likud MK or another coalition lawmaker is bound to ruffle some feathers; and third, Bennett will likely exit the coalition if Netanyahu refuses to name him defense minister.
A third scenario may see Netanyahu stall for as long as he can before naming Bennett as Lieberman's successor. This option is the least likely given the personal tensions between the two, but if it does materialize, it could buy Netanyahu some time to establish a new political axis as a foundation for a government under his leadership after the elections.
A fourth option could see Netanyahu stall for a few weeks, then name Housing and Construction Minister Yoav Gallant, a former GOC Southern Command, as his defense minister.
Naming the Kulanu lawmaker to this post may not make sense politically, but Gallant is believed to be planning to leave his party and join Likud, and this would give Netanyahu a chance to "mentor" Gallant as a high-ranking Likud official.
Moreover, it is no secret that the two share similar views on Israel's policy in Gaza.
If Netanyahu is able to stall the appointment of the next defense minister, this may allow him time to pursue another option as well – naming an external candidate from outside the government.
Since Netanyahu is already the acting foreign minister, he is legally barred from serving as acting defense minister, making the possibility of a professional appointment to the Defense Ministry a realistic scenario.
In this case, any former senior defense official who is not politically affiliated could potentially be in the running for the position, and there is a precedent for it: in 2002, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon named former IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz as his defense minister within weeks of the latter retiring from the military.
The sixth possible scenario is that the 61-MK coalition will manage to survive until the scheduled election in November 2019. Still, pursuing this route would mandate Netanyahu to relinquish either the foreign affairs or defense portfolios, as he cannot hold them both without being subject to legal and public criticism.
The seventh option for Netanyahu focuses on appeasing Likud ministers. Much of Netanyahu's decision to keep the foreign affairs portfolio stemmed from his desire to minimize friction between senior Likud officials, but now that the defense portfolio is back in play, the opportunity may arise to pursue a reshuffle of the offices held by Likud, and naming defense, foreign and housing ministers from within the ruling party.
