From Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's perspective, the unification of the Left is a question of when, not if. The decision has already been made: Israel Resilience Party head Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid will run in the April 9 Knesset election together. They may also be joined by former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. And this unification will be timed so as to leave Netanyahu unprepared, to keep him from responding with a parallel move on the Right.
Netanyahu did not wait to see whether the other side would make such a move. Nor did he wait to see whether Gantz would lose his momentum. This week, Netanyahu determined that it would be him against Gantz in the upcoming elections. When the prime minister marks a target, that rival automatically becomes stronger, becoming a sinkhole that drains all the members of his camp. That target will gain popularity at the expense of the bloc they represent, and their position will eventually put them head to head with Netanyahu, distant from any other candidates in the bloc.
Lapid and Labor party leader Avi Gabbay would give their right hands for Netanyahu to publicly declare that it is either him or them. That way, they could receive what would likely be the only shot of adrenalin that could save their parties, which are shrinking ever-faster.
But Netanyahu chose Gantz. Rather, the current political reality chose Gantz, but Netanyahu made it a settled fact. From Netanyahu's standpoint, there is no other scenario. Gantz will ultimately lead the Center-Left bloc, whether or not he wants that to be the case. The chances of him losing momentum and Knesset seats to Lapid or Labor are basically nonexistent. Moreover, Netanyahu thinks that Lapid won't be able to withstand the pressure, and if hasn't done so already, will form a political union with Gantz in which Gantz is the leader.
Ambivalent ambitions
Netanyahu's mission is incredibly complex. On one hand, he is working to unify the Right; calling on the National Union and Habayit Hayehudi parties to find a solution that will bring them onto a joint list and wondering if even the far-right Otzma Yehudit and even Shas could be brought into the fold. Anything to ensure that everyone passes the electoral threshold and hundreds of thousands of votes for the right-wing camp don't go to waste.
Netanyahu spoke with National Union leader Bezalel Smotrich and Habayit Hayehudi's Rafi Peretz several times this week and encouraged them to unite. He will soon talk with national religious rabbis to explain the absolute need for them to join forces in this election.
According to recent polls, it seems that too many right-wing parties are hovering on the brink of the mininum electoral threshold. If one of them fails to make it over, the Right could lose its majority in the Knesset, and Netanyahu as prime minister as a result.
On the other hand, Netanyahu also has an impending indictment on his mind. He needs a clear election victory and over 30 Knesset seats. That kind of clear electoral victory is necessary to minimize as much as possible the need for to bring other parties into a coalition, which could make things difficult for Netanyahu should a final indictment be filed and possibly force him to resign.
But these two ambitions contradict one another: The Likud cannot be enlarged without putting the other right-wing parties at risk of failing to pass the electoral threshold.
So Netanyahu's solution is to unify the Right. Once there is a united party that lies to the Right of the Likud on the political map and includes Habayit Hayehudi, National Union and Otzma Yehudit - guaranteeing it will pass the electoral threshold - the prime minister can wholeheartedly embark on a campaign to increase his own party's number of Knesset seats. But until that happens, Netanyahu will be forced to run a campaign with one hand tied behind his back.
Under one roof
Beyond the efforts to unify the Right, there has also been an initiative in recent months to unite the country's ultra-Orthodox political parties. If Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah make a deal to run on a joint ticket, Shas is now waiting its turn to join. Some party members involved in the neogitations would like to see a pan-haredi union materialize, while other officials believe such a merger would do their respective parties more harm than good.
But a third initiative would combine both the previous ideas. It might seem unlikely or even unrealistic, but there are some who are trying to convince all religious parties to run for the Knesset under one list. Conceived by a group of haredi businessmen, the political union would include all parties that identify as religious: from the national-religious Habayit Hayehudi to the Ashkenazi haredi Degel Hatorah. But under this scheme, each party would maintain its independence after the election. There would be no joint negotiations to enter the government or one chairperson who would represent the list. Every party would conduct itself independently. They would even conduct separate election campaigns. But come Election Day, one vote for this umbrella party would cover all its individual components.
The thinking is that a merger like this would make it possible to keep the votes of the religious, the haredim, and the traditional Jews in one place and keep them from straying to other parties.
Shiny and new
At Gantz's campaign headquarters, they can't understand what has happened. After every one of the chairman's public appearances, the Israel Resilience spokespeople and political strategists are forced to come out and issue clarifications to correct the damage Gantz himself has done. Meanwhile, there is a growing assessment in the political system that the goal of Gantz's campaign of silence, which earned him praise and got results in the field, was not to create a longing for him to speak, as everyone has assumed. No, his professional campaign staff just wanted him to keep quiet because they understood whom they were dealing with.
Many, many people have pinned their hopes on Gantz. He is a shining star in the political firmament that has come to redeem them from the torments of Netanyahu. He is popular in the media for the same reason. From here, and with the momentum he has amassed, the road to a substantially-sized party that will put up a decent fight against the Likud is extremely short. And that is true both with or without Lapid. But Gantz's political strategists recognize his weakness, which is the element that, if anyone discovers it, could ruin everything. His speech was weak and uncharismatic. That is why they kept him hidden for so long. They coached him on how to deliver a speech and play with different intonations, as well as how to form opinions on any topic and express them properly.
His public appearances are being carefully selected. Ever since Gantz announced he was entering politics, he has made three: outside of his home with Druze protesters demonstrating against the nation-state law; in his now-famous speech at the Tel Aviv Fairgrounds; and in an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth.
In each one of those cases, it was members of his own camp who selected the arena, the setting, the content and the atmosphere. Everything was planned and carefully timed. But still, in every one of these instances, it came out askance. After every performance, his people had to clean up after him: clarify, explain and fix the damage he left behind. That's how it is when you try to have it both ways – be right-wing enough not to be considered a lefty, but not so right-wing as to scare away the lefties from whom you draw a majority of your strength; to send foggy messages and and hope the package is pretty enough that people don't spend too much time on the content.
In short, to follow the path of his political protégé and the creator of the political center: Yair Lapid. But Lapid is more talented and skilled than Gantz. His only disadvantage now is that he's no longer the new kid on the block. That's all. The demand for Lapid to withdraw his candidacy and hand the baton over to Gantz is a bit insolent. Lapid created his party with his own two hands. He invested in groundwork out in the field, on the municipal level, in building a framework and institutions. His base is already stable and strong, unlike all assessments to the contrary. Yesh Atid is here to stay. At least, it is so long as Lapid is serving as its leader. It is even holding firmer than the Labor party, where the voters have fled to Gantz and left Gabbay with a mere five mandates. Lapid may have sunk in the polls because of Gantz, but he hasn't crashed and burned. His supporters, it turns out, are more loyal than the loyalists of Israel's most veteran political party.
Who's the boss?
The talks between Gantz, Lapid and Ashkenazi have been jam-packed and frequent. Ashkenazi would like to join, but only if all three go in together. He doesn't want to be a hero, just to take cover in their shadow and slide into the Knesset with as little public attention as possible. He is still concerned about what remains of the recent scandals involving him. It was only a few weeks ago that he seemd to be heading in the direction of the Likud. The ties between Gabbay and Netanyahu's people were significant. But the prime minister cut things off. His polling made it clear that Ashkenazi would not secure any additional seats for the Likud. That is why Netanyahu gave up on Ashkenazi and preferred to opt for his rival, Housing and Construction Minister Yoav Gallant. The joint press conference Netanyahu held with the Likud's new security acquisition sent a clear message to Ashkenazi that the decision about who the party's new "security guy" would be had already been made.
It was unexpected, but the Likud primaries held this week brought new life to the ruling party. Instead of the usual slander about the Likud having taken a radical turn to the Right, abandoned the values of its great founders and brought zany strawmen to the front of the stage, the political system and even the media had a positive response to the primary results. The Likud's Knesset list is good. Netanyahu is pleased. Former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar, who placed third on the list, is satisfied. The clowns from the last time around have been pushed out. Among the new and promising faces on the list: former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat and former Kulanu MK Yoav Gallant. The experienced ministers were placed out in front. To put it simply, the party has compiled a team it could be proud of, one that could compete with the new shiny teams that will be put forward by Gantz, Lapid, and maybe even Yisrael Beytenu party chief Avigdor Lieberman and Kulanu party leader Moshe Kahlon.
But there is still one difference. Over 60,000 voters decided the Likud list. With the other parties, it's the leader who decides who makes it onto the Knesset list. In recent years, Lapid, Kahlon, and Hatnuah party leader Tzipi Livni have all been forced to respond to that irksome question of why they decided to forgo democratic elections within their own parties while preaching endlessly about the threat to democracy presented by others, chiefly Netanyahu. Absent some murmuring about the pitfalls of the primary system, none of them has provided a serious answer. Following the Likud elections this week, this question has grown even more pressing. The primaries prove that although Netanyahu didn't get everything he asked for, he did preserve the democratic rules. He didn't try to change the constitution and grant himself super powers like former Prime Minister Ehud Barak or Gabbay did in their parties immediately upon taking leadership. He didn't establish a party in his own image, like Livni and Lapid have, and he didn't play with the internal institutions he aggressively controls in order to give himself and his people an advantage. He let the democratic system decide, despite having had to pay for that by having to suffer Sa'ar in the top 5 of the Likud list.
The Labor party has hung its hopes on internal elections. Gabbay confidantes hope the primaries will wake Labor members up and lead to an increase in the number of Knesset seats the party is predicted to win in the polls. It is their assessment that despite everything, the party will come out with double-digit Knesset seats.
The Labor party has 60,000 voters. If over 50% of its members show up to vote, it will be portrayed as proof that the party isn't entirely dead and the polls do not reflect reality. In the time that's left, Gabbay is not counting on there being any unions. The way it looks now, the list that is compiled after the primaries will be the final list the party submits to the Central Election Committee. No surprises are expected. Barak has not and will not show up. The recent renewal of his business contracts is proof of his intention to sit this round out. He won't be re-entering politics right now.
Someone who is in fact looking to jump back into the political game is political strategist YaYa Fink. Fink is no stranger to the Labor party. The opposite is true. He has for years served as political adviser to MK Shelly Yachimovich and later to Gabbay. Fink initiated Lobby 99, which works to promote the public's interests in the Knesset. He is also known as an activist of Tzav Pius, which works to facilitate inter-community dialogue. What exactly would make him want to jump into this party now, of all times? As Fink put it, "In every election, there is a trend of slamming the Labor party and burying it. I believe in the values of the Labor movement of social democracy and striving for peace, and think they're more relevant than ever. Precisely because I'm a young man who wears a kippah, I think that Judaism doesn't belong to the Right alone, and that is why I will fight in the Knesset for the sanctity of life and not just the land and against religification."
