The recently ended summer, and the fact that today's election is taking place only five months after the last election led to the assumption that voter turnout would be lower than usual. Some even talked about the lowest voter turnout ever. They said that political fatigue would keep people at home. That people had already fulfilled their civil obligation.
But by the afternoon of Election Day 2019, 2.0, things appeared to be heading in the opposite direction, with a higher voter turnout than the last few elections.
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Voter turnout is a key factor in the election results. Parties that are hovering over the minimum electoral threshold could find themselves below the red line and out of the Knesset if there is a high turnout overall. A failure by one such party, on the Right or the Left, to make it past the 3.25% threshold could determine the fate of the entire election.
As of Tuesday afternoon, three parties looked like they could find themselves in that position: the far-right Otzma Yehudit, and the Labor-Gesher and Democratic Union lists on the Left. Neither the Likud nor Blue and White are counting on them, and are even trying to increase their numbers on the backs of the smaller parties, assuming that a party's size will be the deciding factor.
However, a blocking opposition on either side is still significant, and if one party is eliminated, it will have a dramatic effect on the entire political map, particularly if it happens to be one of the left-wing parties.
Based on interim numbers, residents of Israel's largest cities are getting out the vote, which is good news for Blue and White and the left-wing bloc as a whole. If we take into account the surprising voter turnout in the Arab sector, it could push Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and his cohort far enough ahead for Gantz to be assigned the responsibility of putting together the next government.
In such a close election, every seat can give either side a blocking opposition, and this time, the battle really is for every last vote.
