The two previous general elections proved that the most important player in an election is the bloc that is capable of forming a coalition, not the size of the individual parties running for the Knesset. In conditions in which the blocs are the same size, the president could assign the head of the largest party to form a government, but in the last round we saw that the two large parties both preferred that the other go first, which did nothing to lead the country out of its electoral crisis.
If no bloc wins 61 seats this time, we'll find ourselves in the same situation we were in the last two times – two blocs of similar size, and a smaller party that insists on a national unity government but cannot force one on the larger parties.
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A few months ago, President Reuven Rivlin suggested a national unity government in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would serve first in a rotation for prime minister but recuse himself if he were indicted and faced trial. For a moment it seemed as if the idea would be accepted and a unity government was just around the corner, but in the end Blue and White scuppered the solution for reasons that included doubt as to whether Netanyahu would step aside when his turn in the rotation was up.
Rejecting Rivlin's proposal was a serious gamble. If in the end there isn't another opportunity to put the center-right back into the political center stage, that missed opportunity will be put down to Benny Gantz, even if he was willing to go with the idea but failed to convince the rest of the Blue and White "cockpit."
Tonight, if it turns out that the haredi-Right bloc has bucked predictions and won 61 seats, Gantz won't be able to face those who wanted him to win, because of the lost opportunity he had to establish a rotation for the prime ministership. But if Netanyahu doesn't have a majority of MKs on his side, Gantz must not repeat his mistake and contribute to a fourth election, which would make Israel a laughingstock and freeze vital processes in many fields.
Netanyahu might tell himself that as far as he's concerned, an everlasting "transition" government, in which he could go into trial as a sitting prime minister, would be better, but it would certainly be no blessing to the liberal wing. It's hard to believe that if Blue and White and the Likud signed a deal for the prime minister to recuse himself (with the period of recusal renewable every 100 days) for as long as the trial continues, with Gantz as acting prime minister and then becoming prime minister when his "turn" in the rotation comes up, Netanyahu would publicly violate it.
If, despite all the predictions, the center-left wins 61 seats without Yisrael Beytenu, it would be best for Gantz to break his vow, establish a minority government, and talk to the Joint Arab List about a "security net."
