Even the most contentious disagreements in previous governments – including coalitions that comprised Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked – didn't prepare Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the miseries of this current government. The combination of an equal share unity government with deadbeats such as Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, his dominant deputy with an independent agenda in the form of Gabi Ashkenazi, and a cohort of inexperienced Knesset members who haven't graduated political boot camp yet, spurred Netanyahu to utter the word "election" more than once this week in closed-door conversations.
Netanyahu is also frustrated on the diplomatic front. He earmarked next week as critical in terms of advancing the sovereignty initiative. In his most recent meeting with US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, Netanyahu presented several alternate maps he would be willing to accept. None of the maps were similar to the concept map published by the Americans a few months ago. If he gets the green light to pursue one of the alternate maps, Netanyahu will take it and run full steam ahead.
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Behind closed doors this week, the prime minister said he no longer intends to wait for Blue and White's consent. Moreover, he has said, even if Blue and White opposes the sovereignty initiative – he will raise the matter for government approval, where it will pass by the slimmest of margins on the vote of Communications Minister Yoaz Handel (Derech Eretz), who will give the right-wing bloc the required majority.
Netanyahu plans to skip the Knesset altogether. The prime minister believes he cannot currently trust the Yamina and Israel Beytenu parties to secure approval for the plan in the Knesset. Knesset approval is not a requirement for implementing sovereignty, government approval is sufficient.
Netanyahu has also told confidants that if Blue and White manages to torpedo approval for sovereignty, he won't hesitate to call for another election. The new "Alternate Prime Minister Law" grants him the right to disperse the Knesset within the first six months of the government's term, without having to transfer premiership of the transition government to Gantz. This gives him another five months from today, June 18. Netanyahu, however, has also found another off-ramp after the six-month deadline: If he decides to pass an annual national budget, one for the remainder of 2020 and another for 2021, the prime minister will have until March 2021 to prevent the last budget from passing and then disperse the Knesset.
According to assessments within the Likud, March 2021 is the more commonsensical date for dispersing the Knesset. The five-month timeframe is too narrow; the prime minister will only pursue such action in the extreme scenario of his losing control of the coalition.
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