The fate of the fragile 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers hinges on the result of the US presidential election in November, not a planned US bid this week to trigger a return of all UN sanctions on Tehran, said several Iranian officials.
When Iran agreed to sanctions relief in return for curbs on its nuclear program, Tehran warned that it would no longer stick to the deal if any of the parties sparked a so-called snapback of sanctions at the UN Security Council, a backstop included in the accord in case Iran stopped complying.
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US President Donald Trump's administration plans this week to use that snapback provision, even though it quit the deal in 2018 and the move is opposed by the remaining parties to the accord – Germany, Britain, France, Russia, China and Iran.
But despite Tehran's declaration five years ago, three senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran's leadership is determined to remain committed to the nuclear deal, hoping that a victory by Trump's political rival Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 presidential election will salvage the pact.
"Right now the decision is to remain in the deal even if Americans make their biggest mistake of triggering the snapback mechanism," said a senior official, on condition of anonymity, who is involved in the discussions about Iran's nuclear policy.
"We will be still here, but Trump might not be at the White House in a few months," the official said.
Biden has said he would rejoin the nuclear deal, but only if Iran first returned to compliance. The accord was agreed by former US President Barack Obama's administration, when Biden was vice president.
A second Iranian official – a former nuclear negotiator – said Iran was "technically and politically" ready to quit.
"But we have to be smart and not to fall in the US trap which wants to push Iran out of the deal," said the official.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has described the next few weeks and months as critical for the nuclear deal.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was expected to travel to New York on Thursday to seek a return of all UN sanctions on Iran and meet with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, diplomats and a UN official said.
To trigger a return of the sanctions, the United States will submit a complaint to the 15-member UN Security Council about Iran's non-compliance with the nuclear deal, even though Washington quit the accord in 2018.
Pompeo will likely meet with Indonesia's UN Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani, the Security Council president for August, to submit the complaint, diplomats said. Pompeo is also due to meet with Guterres, a UN official said.
In response to what Washington calls its "maximum pressure" campaign – a bid to get Iran to negotiate a new deal – Tehran has breached several central limits of the 2015 deal, including on its stock of enriched uranium.
But diplomats say the snapback process will be tough and messy as Russia, China and other countries on the Security Council challenge the legality of the US move given Washington itself is no longer complying with what Trump called "worst deal ever" and has imposed strong unilateral sanctions on Iran.
A European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the US move to spark a return of all UN sanctions would risk "destroying" the nuclear deal, but "it will be a completely contested procedure so the snapback will have no effect, it will not be recognized by others."
The United States argues it can trigger the return of the sanctions because it is still named as a participant to the nuclear deal in a 2015 UN Security Council resolution that enshrines the agreement.
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A second European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said "the overwhelming majority of the international community" believe the United States cannot trigger snapback.
Outgoing US Iran envoy Brian Hook said on Tuesday that the nuclear deal, while well intentioned, had failed to deter Iran.
"We have put in place enormous leverage for a [Trump] second term to get the kind of outcomes that we're going to need," he told a United Against Nuclear Iran think tank event.
