Two days from now, on Nov. 3, after some 90 million Americans cast ballots in early voting, the final decision will be made. In the shadow of a new wave of coronavirus, which on Saturday hit a record of several hundred thousand new cases, and a deep internal, societal, ideological, and cultural divide, tensions in the American street hit new levels this year. It's no surprise that voter turnout this time could break the 1960 record of 63%.
Indeed, we have before us an epic battle between two worldviews – liberal and conservative – that lead to very different action and policies about welfare, business horizons, and rights of the voting public vs. the state. Given this polarization, which the COVID crisis heightened, it would be appropriate to look at the current status of the White House among most of the demographics that gave the president his surprising win four years ago. Especially given the inherent contradiction between his desire to fulfill his commitment to his supporters, unconditionally, and the series of necessities and considerations that seem to have mandated he cut himself off, if partially, from that original commitment.
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The most tangible example of the dilemma Trump is now facing jumped onto center stage even before COVID. This was his strategic decision to remain loyal to his conservative views and not soften them, even around the edges, in an attempt to win more demographics, especially in the suburbs, no matter what political price he might have to pay for it. That is how the 45th president worked tirelessly to appoint notably conservative judges to the Supreme Court when slots opened up. His recent appointment of the ultra-conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett is the latest, most dramatic testimony of the line Trump is taking to tighten his old on his Evangelical Christian followers and get them excited about the election.
The problem is that such a sweeping ideological change on the Supreme Court, which could be reflected in future rulings on sensitive, hot-button values, cultural, and economic issues, such as a woman's right to make decisions about her body or single-payer health care, has led to such a massive backlash among some demographics whose support the president desperately needs to win – mainly, educated white suburban women. Many of them already turned their backs on the Republican Party in the mid-term elections on those same grounds, and Trump's misogynist remarks have highlighted his contrarian approach.
The vast majority of the rest of the parameters that could decide the president's political future two days from now have to do with the COVID crisis and how it was handled. For example, we are seeing the White House lose stature among elderly Americans, especially in the key state of Florida, where no less than 20% of residents are over 65, who are dismayed at the hasty reopening of the economy. As a high-risk group, they are frightened by the spread of the merciless virus.
Similar things can be said about other social demographics who were badly hurt by the current crisis, including blue-collar workers in the Rust Belt (whose support helped him win in 2016), whose improved employment in the first three years of Trump's presidency was cut off in a single blow because of COVID; and a significant sector of African American voters, whose financial situation was transformed under Trump before they too became victim of the apocalypse.
As if that weren't enough, increasing voter turnout among young people age 29 and under, some of whom are simply anti-Trump, both because of his handling of the COVID crisis and his strong-arm policies against the protests in response to the killing of George Floyd, could make it difficult for him to recapture the public's faith.
Despite the huge hurdles he must clear to make it back into the White House, it's still too early to declare his chances over. Among other reasons, because we cannot know how many "quiet voters" will cast ballots for the president. It's also unclear whether or not some of his original supporters will decide, just before the final bell rings, to come home despite their disappointment at how he handled COVID. So rather than making predictions, it would be better to be patient and wait for the decision itself, rather than statistics.
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