In the weeks that led up to the decision on Nov. 3, the working assumption of American analysts and pollsters was their projection that Democratic candidate Joe Biden would win big in the presidential election, which would also see the Dems regain control of the Senate, completing their grasp on the Capitol Hill joystick. Indeed, the evening before the election, the American media was flooded with analogies and historical comparisons from other races that finished with a sweep or near-sweep for one side, such as 1972 or 1984.
However, in total contrast to their expectations, President Trump managed to win no fewer than 73 million votes, including the electoral votes in 25 states (unlike George McGovern, who in 1972 won the electoral votes in only one state as well as in the District of Columbia, or Walter Mondale, who was also defeated in 49 states).
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This was despite the chilling shadow cast by the coronavirus pandemic, which by Election Day had claimed the lives of 225,000 Americans, that hovered over the campaign and to a large extent determined its agenda.
Actually, not only did the Democratic majority in the House shrink after the election, chances are that the Republicans will retain their hold of the Senate after the runoff election for two seats in Georgia, set to take place on Jan. 5. Aside from that, despite all the pessimistic projects about the president's chances of winning a major part of the Hispanic vote, it turns out that Trump won no less than 35% of votes cast by that important minority demographic. The president's success in that demographic was not limited to voters of Cuban or Venezuelan background, who mostly live in south Florida and have developed a deep antipathy for the progressive camp, but included many second-generation citizens of Mexican background, mainly in south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
At first glance, this proven ability to penetrate known Democratic bastions appears to be an anomaly, since after all, one could have assumed that Trump's offensive remarks, especially at the start of his presidency, about illegal immigrants from Mexico and his attempts to build a border wall, haven't been forgotten.
Nevertheless, it appears that this voting pattern reflects the aspiration of this immigrant group to build a new identity in the country that took them in, while at the same time differentiating themselves. Given that, voting for the 45th president is seen by many in the Hispanic community as identifying with the American ethos and narrative, since the president branded himself as someone whose historic role was to bring the US forward into a time of glory and prosperity, thereby fulfilling the American dream. Moreover, the base of the White House's support, in rural America and in small towns, and most (if not all) parts of the South remained in place in the 2020 election with almost no losses.
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Despite these impressive electoral achievements, which came at an extremely challenging time, what tipped the scales was Biden's ability to reduce or close the gap in suburbs in key states in the Midwest, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which gave Trump his victory four years ago. This was in addition to the Democratic candidate's success in most metropolitan cities, and a majority of cities where Trump won the blue-collar vote in 2016 but where his grip on them is now weakening.
While the big cities were the base for Biden's win, which was anchored in unprecedented Democratic voter turnout, in affluent suburbs (most of which traditionally vote Republican), it was educated white women who flocked to the Democrats, chipping away at Trump's success among suburban men. That protest vote was the result not only of Trump's misogynist remarks, but also his attempts to pack the Supreme Court with justices who hold ultra-conservative views (as he promised his voters he would do). The fact that the balance of the court now promises that a number of values issues can now be reexamined, including abortion, raised the level of the grudge women (especially in the suburbs) held toward the nation's leader.
And so it happened that a businessman who prided himself on his dealmaking ability, was left sitting in the Oval office, determined in his opposition to any pragmatic step or deal that could include any deviation from his basic ideological lines, even if the price means losing the kingdom.
