Recent polls delving into potential trends among Arab Israeli voters ahead of the March elections are showing a surprising increase in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Yousef Makladeh, CEO of the Statnet Polling Institute, which surveys trends patterns in the Arab sector says the data shoes support for Likud and Netanyahu among Arab constituents has increased sixfold: if over the past election year some 10,000 Arab Israelis voted for the ruling party, the next elections are likely to see at least 60,000 of them vote for Likud.
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As a rule, the Israeli Right has no fans in the Arab sector, so the question is – what has changed? Is the increase in support for Netanyahu the result of his attempt to increase Likud's appeal to the Arab sector, or the results of Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas' support for him, which has carried over to the Arab electorate?
Moreover, while Netanyahu's approval ratings in the Arab sector are steadily climbing, those of the Joint Arab List – which garnered the support of 87% of Arab voters in the September 2020 elections – have dropped significantly. Only 70% of Arab voters say they would elect it and data shows it is poised to lose up to five of its 15 mandates come the March 23 vote.
The Joint Arab List comprises four parties: Balad, Ra'am, Ta'al, and Hadash. To truly understand the effect the dynamics between these four has on Arab voters, we must first do away with the false paradigm by which the Arab electorate instinctively gravitates toward the Left.
Most Arab voters support the Joint Arab List but many admit that they voted for it for lack of a better political alternative to represent them – not because they support a liberal, left-wing worldview. The Arab sector in Israel is, for the most part, religious, conservative, and clearly patriarchal, meaning the average Arab Israeli shudder at the thought of the liberal values championed by the Zionist and post-Zionist Left.
Netanyahu has never been shy about making a political U-turn where one is warranted, nor does he shy away from taking calculated political risks that could prove fortuitous down the line.
The prime minister has nothing to lose and everything to gain from embracing the Arab electorate. If he continues to do so, it will show where it counts the most – in the polls.
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