Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's election campaign is not the one he had hoped to run. There will be no exit from the pandemic on the eve of the elections: Morbidity is on the rise, deaths are skyrocketing, and the end is nowhere in sight.
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Netanyahu is a man of exceptional adaptability. He never allows himself to commit to one plan, and the speed with which he recalculates his path often takes both his rivals and his closest confidantes by surprise.
He's come to the conclusion that his image as a divisive figure is pushing away a large public that sees him as the most suited to lead but is put off by this kind of conduct. The campaign Netanyahu is now waging is free of any attacks and focuses entirely on his capacity as a leader, a leader who despite his rivals' assessments brought vaccines to Israel and forged peace with four Arab states.
Should US President Joe Biden's administration begin to make things difficult for Israel on either the Iranian or diplomatic front, the campaign will present Netanyahu as the only one able to stand up to the White House pressure.
As for political opponents, Netanyahu has decided to completely ignore Gideon Sa'ar, so as to avoid improving the New Hope leader's standing and setting him up as a rival. The assessment among Likud members is that Sa'ar is getting nervous and likely already making mistakes. In the moment of truth, Netanyahu believes Sa'ar will wind up garnering Knesset seats in the single-digits.
While New Right leader Naftali Bennett has sharpened his tone against the prime minister and called for his removal, the Likud has maintained radio silence. Yet unlike with Sa'ar, this is not just to avoid crowning him Netanyahu's rival. Bennett is an important potential future partner: Without Bennett in the picture, Netanyahu has no coalition to speak of.
The Likud is directing its efforts at one figure and one figure alone: Yair Lapid. Netanyahu is interested in making the Yesh Atid party head his chief rival, in a move aimed at bringing down the number of Sa'ar's Knesset seats and maybe even those of the other left-wing parties barely predicted to make it into the Knesset.
Benny Gantz's dying party is deep within Netanyahu's plan. The prime minister doesn't see Blue and White making it into the Knesset. If anything, Netanyahu's concern is that Gantz's party will take its last breath too soon, prompting the former IDF chief of staff to prefer to pull out of the race.
Let us not forget that Netanyahu also has plans for the dismantled Joint Arab List, although the extent of those plans remains unknown for now.
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