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Home Special Coverage 2021 Election On the Ballot

Poll shows both Netanyahu rival Sa'ar and Labor losing steam  

Likud predicted to win 29 seats, with 17 for Yesh Atid and 10 for the Joint Arab List. Poll also asks respondents about their COVID vaccination status, and results show that the more religious they are, the less likely they are to have gotten the vaccine.

by  Mati Tuchfeld
Published on  03-05-2021 07:56
Last modified: 03-08-2021 10:04
Poll shows both Netanyahu rival Sa'ar and Labor losing steam  Orly Adas, Central Elections Committee

Election workers in COVID protective gear count ballots in the March 2020 election | File photo: Orly Adas, Central Elections Committee

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The map of projected seats remains unstable, with no party likely to form a government, this week's Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll shows.

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After Labor saw its stock rise consistently for a time after MK Merav Michaeli was elected party leader, Labor was down in this week's poll to a projected four seats, putting it barely over the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%.

Former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party also lost steam.

According to the poll, conducted by Professor Yitzhak Katz for Maagar Mohot Institute, if the election were held now, Likud under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win 29 seats.

The poll showed ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism winning eight and seven seats, respectively, with four seats projected for the Religious Zionist party.

The poll predicted 10 seats for Naftali Bennett's Yamina, meaning that if Yamina were to join the bloc, it would have 58 seats, three short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

On the other side of the map, Yesh Atid under Yair Lapid was projected to win 17 seats. Sa'ar's New Hope dropped to a projected 11 seats, with seven seats projected for Yisrael Beytenu under Avigdor Lieberman.

The poll predicted 10 seats for the Joint Arab List, without MK Mansour Abbas' Ra'am party. Ra'am was projected to win four seats.

Meretz was also predicted to make it past the minimum threshold and win four seats, as was Labor.

Blue and White held steady, with a projected five seats.

When asked who was best qualified to serve as prime minister, 46% of respondents picked Netanyahu. Nearly one-fourth (24%) picked Lapid, and 15% picked Sa'ar. Bennett was seen as the best candidate for prime minister by 11% of respondents. Only 4% said Blue and White leader Benny Gantz was the best person for the job.

The poll also asked respondents about possible coalitions.

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Slightly more than a third (34%) said they would like to see a "partial" right-wing coalition that included the Likud, the Haredi parties, Religious Zionist, and Yamina; while 19% said they wanted Lapid to form a government that would include Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beytenu, Blue and White, Labor, and Meretz.

Another 14% of respondents said they wanted the same combination of parties, but with Sa'ar as prime minister, and 7% said they wanted Bennett to lead a government comprising those parties.

Among Yamina voters, 52% said they wanted Bennett to serve as prime minister of a government comprised of center-left partners, and 33% said they wanted Bennett to join a right-wing government under Netanyahu.

The poll also asked respondents about their vaccination status, with 74% saying they had been vaccinated, which matches the data for Israelis age 18 and over. The percentage of those who said they had been vaccinated was higher among respondents who do not identify as "religious" said they had been vaccinated, with 86% of non-religious respondents saying they had been vaccinated. Generally speaking, the more religious the respondents were, the less likely they were to have been vaccinated.

Eighty percent of respondents identifying as "traditional" had been vaccinated, compared to only 46% of respondents defining themselves as "Haredi."

Only 59% of Arab respondents said they had been vaccinated.

Surprisingly, the party that had the most support from vaccinated respondents was Yisrael Beytenu, some of whose MKs have openly declared they would not get the vaccine. Among Labor supporters, 87% said they had been vaccinated, and 86% of Likud supporters said they had been vaccinated.

Only 44% of Religious Zionist party supporters said they had been vaccinated, while 64% of United Torah Judaism and Shas supporters said they had been vaccinated.

Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Joint Arab List supporters said they had been vaccinated, while only 54% of Ra'am supporters said they had been vaccinated.

Tags: 2021 electionbennettIsraeli electionLapidLikudNetanyahu

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