All the signs seemed to point to the current election being a particularly fraught one: it began after a year of a historic pandemic and continual economic and emotional crisis, after a new US administration took office and at a watershed defense moment on Iran. It comes after months of protests, a trial that is under way, and never-ending personal battles between the government and the opposition, as well as within the government itself. The fate of the legal system is also hanging in the balance, as is the rule of the functionaries and the question of religion and state, which have been the subject of recent media focus.
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As if all this weren't enough, the results will be nerve-wracking. No one knows who, if anyone, will win, and polls are showing that the decision could come down to one or two seats either way.
In a situation like this, the election could have been expected to be dynamic and highly vocal – the anti-Netanyahu protesters who have finally gotten a chance to replace the government, and the people on the Right – the conservatives, and the Haredim, who will fight to keep the current one in place – should have gone to the wall and given everything they had to defend their positions passionately. Nothing even close to that happened. How is it that despite all the conditions that existed when the election was announced, the campaign has taken place amid such apathy, nearly unnoticed?
There are a few possible explanations. First, the public is sick of it all and has little faith in the outcome of the fourth election. And still, the prime minister is trying to shake up sleepy activists. He has begun criss-crossing the country, holding a series of events from morning to night. The big question is whether or not he will managed to bring right-wingers to the polls on Election Day, or whether most of them will opt to stay home.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aiming his main message against a possible government under Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, but there are plenty of other reasons why right-wing voters should turn out. The International Criminal Court at The Hague gave us reminder of what happens to us in the international arena when the person in the White House is less than supportive, and our Supreme Court takes care to remind us that judicial activism is still fully alive and kicking. One party list includes the first potential MK to represent Reform Judaism, as well as another candidate who wants to destroy Zichron Yaakov and send its residents back to Europe, while another party supports investigating IDF soldiers and commanders in international anti-Semitic tribunals.
As Netanyahu steps up his appearances, his main rival, Lapid, is hiding. In perfect coordination with the political partners in his camp, Lapid isn't worried about the number of seats Yesh Atid wins, but the number of seats each party on the Left as well as Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope will win, so that the bloc can together make it to 61 seats and possibly oust Netanyahu. Lapid is counting heavily on the party's field work, which proved itself in the previous election rounds in terms of bringing voters to the polls when it counts. For that, they don't need a campaign, they need logistics and transportation.
Sa'ar, on the other hand, needs a campaign without campaigning. Sa'ar is still counting on his political abilities to help him success where Netanyahu and Lapid might fail, but the idea of him doing that with a single-digit number of seats seems ridiculous, and supporters of New Hope cannot allow that to happen, even though the party seems to be losing steam these past few days.
The person who is gaining momentum, despite the unknown factor of what he intends to do after the election, is Yamina leader Naftali Bennett. Yamina appears to be in a stable situation and is not showing signs of slowing down, as his New Right party did a year or so ago.
The next big battle for votes will be between the Arab parties. It is a sectorial one, but it will have sweeping and long-term effects on the political system, and might wind up determining who will be the next prime minister. The Arab parties have an enormous voter base, but low voter turnout. Their ability to both convince voters and get them to the polls could be the deciding factor in whether or not there is a strong enough anti-Netanyahu bloc to lead to a change of government.
Therefore, the mission of waking people up from their slumber and moving them to the polls has become Netanyahu's main job, as well as the main task for everyone else. It looks like it will be difficult to change people's minds about the prime minister, but it is definitely possible to influence their decision about whether or not go vote or stay home.
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