Political miracles are rare. It is possible that in the fifth, or ninth or 21st general election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will suddenly find 61 MKs who support him. But all we have to go on right now is what we can clearly see.
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What is clear is that Netanyahu – a respected leader who propelled Israel to the forefront of the world stage, who brought peace, who improved the economy, who has kept the country safe and has successfully navigated it out of a global pandemic – has been unable to gain the Knesset's confidence for the past four election campaigns.
This is the political reality, good or bad, justified or distorted, decent or cruel. It hurts, but right not, it doesn't look like this reality is going to change in the foreseeable future.
The realpolitik is that a government will form only if Netanyahu agrees to moves ever so slightly from his current position. Were Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, Labor leader Merav Michaeli or Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich step down there still wouldn't be a government. But if Netanyahu is more flexible on the matter, putting together a government would be a matter of minutes.
It may not be just or fair but it is what it is. After two years of a political tailspin, the only way to form a government is for the prime minister to make concessions.
There are many plausible scenarios for this, from a legally binding power-sharing deal to another senior Likud member stepping it, but it's not the details that matter but the principle. Unless Netanyahu is willing to cooperate, there is no way that a government can be formed – certainly not one that will pursue judicial reforms, promote the settlement enterprise and overall represents the Right and its supporters.
Why? Because a government dependent on the support of parties whose members are terror sympathizers, regardless of who heads it, will be unable to secure a Knesset majority. There are plenty of politicians with backbones in the House to see to that.
So-called "defectors" are also unlikely. No one has really switched political camps in the process of the last four elections and the burden of proof is on those who claim it is bound to happen this time.
If Netanyahu has any tricks up his sleeves this is the time to use them. Show us the 61 votes – because we cannot see them manifesting.
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