The atrocities committed by the retreating Russian military in Bucha and other northeastern Ukrainian towns have diverted the international attention from the significance of the troops' overall withdrawal from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy districts.
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The Russian invasion of northern Ukraine, which was launched with the aim of overthrowing the Zelenskyy government, has been met with a counteroffensive that has resulted in the Russians being pushed to their starting positions.
Contrary to what Moscow claims, this is not a "redeployment" that aims to further the peace talks but rather a means to bolster the rear for reorganization and indicates a massive casualty rate that has forced the Russian military to retreat and recover.
It is hard to know the actual number of casualties of the Russian attempt to occupy Kyiv. Ukrainian estimates are mostly general and refer to all fronts of the war, while Moscow reports suspiciously few losses on its part.
One cannot help but recall the disastrous entry of Russian troops into Grozny during the First Chechen War, when Russian tanks drove straight into a hostile environment and faced motivated fighters equipped with anti-tank warfare.
The situation was very different, when Grozny, a much smaller town, was finally occupied by the Russian military, which had suffered great losses. This time, it seems the Kremlin decided to change its war plan.
The heavy shelling by Russian troops in southern Ukraine, along with the deployment of additional forces, indicate that Moscow is planning another offensive. According to Western intelligence, the attack was originally scheduled for April 1 but got delayed, supposedly due to a lack of reserve forces sufficient for a large-scale attack.
To defeat the many Ukrainian forces on the Donbas front in the east, the Russian military will need to rehabilitate and reposition the troops that fought in Kyiv, to move them to the front and bring in more soldiers.
Russia's reserve mobilization mechanism allows for the expansion of the forces without relying on a mandatory draft, something that the Kremlin has refrained from so far for fear of public outcry. But the expected offensive brings along another challenge, one that Russian President Vladimir Putin has himself created.
The absolute secrecy imposed by Putin with regard to the time of the attack focuses on the need to achieve significant progress by May 9, a holiday in Russia that commemorates Germany's surrender in 1945.
But even if Russia can carry out an offensive and achieve some of its military goals, the process will not be easy given the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian military. The removal of the threat, if only partially, over Kyiv, has freed up many Ukrainian soldiers and equipment.
In addition, the Ukrainian military does not hold back from using its reserve forces, as they are fighting for their survival. They are determined to retaliate against the Russian forces for the reported massacres of civilians as well as liberate at least some of the territories occupied by the enemy in the south. And the West may provide Kyiv with the weapons to do so.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the US will deliver antitank systems to Ukraine so that the besieged country will have ten missiles for each Russian tank in its territory. Moreover, NATO countries are also considering providing Kyiv with tanks and other military equipment in the coming days.
With the Russian offensive delayed, both sides are doing their utmost to arm themselves and prepare for another round of fighting that could end in a military achievement Moscow will call the success of its "special military operation," or a Ukrainian achievement that will improve Kyiv's position in negotiations to end the war.
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